55 ITM on the EURUSD on June 6, 2013

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5/5 ITM on the EUR/USD on June 6, 2020

I traded the EUR/USD from around 2AM-7:30AM EST on Thursday and found five set-ups to trade.

The first trade I took occurred on the 2:15 candle where I was looking at a call option on a retrace back to a previous resistance area. For about one hour, price had been consolidating around the 1.31046 price level, but finally broke through it and closed above just after 2AM. The EUR/USD acted like it wanted to move higher, so I began singling out a retrace back toward 1.31046 as potential call option territory. The retrace happened right off the bat, with the 2:10 candle coming back down to 1.31046.

I almost always never take a touch of a level right away as I did when I traded binary options in the past. I believe it’s a higher-probability play to wait for a touch of a support or resistance level, followed by a rejection, and taking a subsequent touch (if it occurs) on the next candle. That’s exactly what I did for this particular trade – not taking the touch of 1.31046 on the 2:10 candle, but waiting for the rejection to help me validate that the breach of 1.31046 was a genuine signal that the asset wanted to reach new highs. So I took the trade on the touch of that level on the 2:15 candle. It turned out to be a great trade. It was up by fifteen pips at one point, which is a pretty significant move for that early in the morning before closing out as a ten-pip winner.

The price action became pretty volatile after that even though it still maintained a bias toward the north-side. I had that green support 1 line (1.3120 price level) to look at as a potential area of resistance, but based on how the price was moving it didn’t seem very prudent to be taking trades. Once price broke through 1.3120, I had considered call options upon a retrace back down to 1.3120 but there wasn’t a lot of sensitivity shown to that level at the moment so I decided to bypass any trades there. This is why I feel so strongly about waiting for more validation before taking any S/R-based trades (i.e., never taking the touch right away). If I had traded the support 1 line indiscriminately from 2:30-4:30, I definitely would have had some losing trades.

I did, however, take a call option on the 5:05 candle at 1.3120. The trend was still definitely up for the morning and I had the support 1 (green) line working in my favor to support the set-up. Support 1 hadn’t exactly held as a support or resistance area, but it had held relatively well on the 5:05 candle alone. I actually briefly went down to the one-minute chart (see image below) and the price action was favoring a hold of 1.3120 on that time compression so I went ahead and made the call option. It was also just over five minutes before the option’s expiry so I only needed a very short-term bounce or hold of 1.3120 for it to be a successful trade.

Admittedly, I got a little bit lucky with this trade, as it only won by about half-a-pip and was actually against me about ten seconds before the option expired before coming back up into the green.

After the call option, price retraced below support 1. Therefore, following the general principle that old support can turn into new resistance (and vice versa) I began pegging 1.3120 as a potential put option set-up. The 5:30 candle came up and touched 1.3120, but I didn’t take a trade there, preferring to wait. It touched again on the 5:40 candle and closed just above the support 1 line. I wasn’t exactly sure if the level would hold or if it would go back up above it. Then we saw a doji form on the 5:45 candle, which is always a possible indication of an impending reversal, and holds more indicative value when this candle type forms along a line of support or resistance. So I decided to take a put option near the beginning of the 5:50 candle and rode that for a five-pip winner.

Price continued to trend lower after that and I had our old level of 1.31046 eyed as a place for potential call option set-ups, with 1.3120 still in play for put options. However, a line of support formed approximately around the 1.31109 price level between 6:40AM and 7:40AM before heading back up to support 1. As a result, 1.31109 became my targeted level for call options instead of all the way down at 1.31046.

In the meantime, I actually ended up taking a put option on the 7:20 candle at 1.3120. Price had a relatively large degree of momentum on the 7:10 candle and broke nearly three pips above 1.3120 before wicking back down. The 7:15 bar was a red “hanging man” candle that closed below the level. So I decided to take a trade on the touch of 1.3120 when it came back up to that price level on the 7:20 candle. Initially, there was a break above my entry point by about four pips and I legitimately believed that price would continue higher. But it turned out to be a false break and the put option ultimately held for a four-pip winner.

As a general note, however, whenever you observe a false break of a price level, be very wary of trading it later on in the trading session. Unless, of course, new price data leads you to believe that it continues to be a “safe” area to trade. Although I stopped trading soon after that trade, price eventually did completely bust through 1.3120 – to the tune of nearly 200 pips. And 200-pip days rarely happen. And fortunately enough, I had a long EUR/USD spot forex trade in place until Friday morning and captured the entire move. :) (For those interested, I’ll write about it on my strategy thread on BOD)

I still had one final trade for the day, which was down at our new support level that was formed at roughly 1.31109. Price had come down and rejected the level on the 7:35 candle, before going back up on the subsequent candle. I did not take the call option on the 7:40 candle. First off, I had a lot of time to get into the trade, with still a full fifteen minutes before expiration. And second, momentum had been down over the past half-hour, so I wanted to make sure I’m simply not fighting against where the market wants to go. But with the 7:40 candle showing validation of 1.31109 as a support level, I took a call option at the touch of that price on the 7:45 candle. The trade turned into a ten-pip winner and gave me a 5/5 ITM day.

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US Dollar (USD) to Euro (EUR) Historical Exchange Rates on 30th June 2020 (30/06/2020)

On June 30, 2020 the Official USD to EUR Exchange Rate:

Close: 1 USD = 0.7684 EUR

Best: 1 USD = 0.76843 EUR

Worst: 1 USD = 0.76843 EUR

Today’s Live US Dollar to Euro Spot Rate:

Live: 1 USD = 0.9264 EUR

03/04/2020 vs 30/06/2020 CLOSE = +20.56%

03/04/2020 vs 30/06/2020 HIGH = +20.56%

03/04/2020 vs 30/06/2020 LOW = +20.56%

Last 180 days USD/EUR history: USD/EUR historical rates

USD/EUR Conversion History Table

Compare various denominations for the US Dollar / Euro exchange rate conversion on the 30th June 2020 using the data table below.

US Dollar converted into Euro Euro converted into US Dollar Date
1 USD = 0.76843 EUR 1.3014 USD = 1 EUR on 30/06/2020
5 USD = 3.8422 EUR 6.5068 USD = 5 EUR on 30/06/2020
10 USD = 7.6843 EUR 13.014 USD = 10 EUR on 30/06/2020
15 USD = 11.526 EUR 19.520 USD = 15 EUR on 30/06/2020
20 USD = 15.369 EUR 26.027 USD = 20 EUR on 30/06/2020
25 USD = 19.211 EUR 32.534 USD = 25 EUR on 30/06/2020
50 USD = 38.422 EUR 65.068 USD = 50 EUR on 30/06/2020
100 USD = 76.843 EUR 130.14 USD = 100 EUR on 30/06/2020
500 USD = 384.22 EUR 650.7 USD = 500 EUR on 30/06/2020
1000 USD = 768.4 EUR 1301 USD = 1000 EUR on 30/06/2020
2500 USD = 1921 EUR 3253 USD = 2500 EUR on 30/06/2020
5000 USD = 3842 EUR 6507 USD = 5000 EUR on 30/06/2020
10000 USD = 7684 EUR 13014 USD = 10000 EUR on 30/06/2020
25000 USD = 19211 EUR 32534 USD = 25000 EUR on 30/06/2020
50000 USD = 38422 EUR 65068 USD = 50000 EUR on 30/06/2020
100000 USD = 76843 EUR 130135 USD = 100000 EUR on 30/06/2020
250000 USD = 192108 EUR 325339 USD = 250000 EUR on 30/06/2020
500000 USD = 384215 EUR 650677 USD = 500000 EUR on 30/06/2020
1000000 USD = 768430 EUR 1301355 USD = 1000000 EUR on 30/06/2020

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USD/CHF and EUR/USD Trading on August 7, 2020: 3/5 ITM (1 ATM)

I began watching the USD/CHF a little before 12AM EST. I gave it only marginal attention for the first couple hours as very little volume was in the market and I was basically just waiting for it to make a move. In terms of price levels, I had the daily pivot level of 0.92633 available, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (0.92745), which would end up coming into play for the ninth consecutive trading day.

Some minor support was available at 0.92536 that formed just before 1AM, but I prefer to ignore weaker support and resistance levels when entering higher-volatility time periods (e.g., European morning), as they tend to not hold as well as they might in lower-volatility periods (e.g., Asian session). The USD/CHF finally started to move a bit more around 2AM and eventually made its way up to the pivot (purple line in below screenshots) by 3AM. Nevertheless, I wasn’t able to use the pivot as a put option set-up, as the level did not hold as resistance on its first touch and instead breached and closed above 0.92633.

Afterward, the market made its way up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. But again, similar to what happened at the daily pivot, price went through the 61.8 Fib and closed above it. However, price did hang around the level for about 25 minutes, showing that the 0.92745 was plenty sensitive as a market price for potential call option set-ups on a retracement back down.

The next level I had targeted was the resistance 1 level at 0.92889. However, price began retracing back down about five pips shy of resistance 1. The market touched and rejected the 61.8% Fib on the 4:50 candle, leading to (finally) my first trade set-up of the day on the subsequent re-touch of 0.92745 on the 4:55 candle. This call option did very well going with the morning uptrend and closed out seven pips in favor.

After that, the market came very close to resistance 1 (1-2 pips) before again retracing back down. And for some reason, beginning just before 6AM, the USD started aggressively selling off. I checked to see if this was occurring on other USD pairs, and it was. The EUR/USD saw a rise in price (Euro gaining against the USD), and in the process, I actually found a trade set-ups on both pairs at the same time.

On the USD/CHF, strong wicks formed on two consecutive candles along the 0.92492 support level. At first I was cautious of taking any call options given the strong sell-off that was occurring. But two strong consecutive wicks at a support level usually represents a good trade set-up and I felt a reversal could be in store.

Moreover, cross-checking this price movement against the EUR/USD, a trade reversal also seemed likely on that pair given that it was pushing up against a major 23.6% Fibonacci level (1.33164) drawn from nearly a 1,700-pip range of price data (1.20411-1.37104). Price rejected the 23.6% Fib on the 6:15 candle before I got in a put option at the touch of the Fibonacci line on the 6:20 candle. This trade finished directly at-the-money.

Back on the USD/CHF, I took a call option at 0.92492 on the 6:25 candle, planned for a 6:45 expiry. This trade did go against me right away, and although it showed signs of a potential comeback toward the latter stages, it closed out as a one-pip loss. The expectation of a price reversal on both pairs was correct, however, but I simply wasn’t able to get any winning trades out of it.

My next trade was also on the EUR/USD. After encountering resistance from the 23.6% Fibonacci level, price retraced back down to the daily pivot point of 1.32904 and bounced off. Given this candlestick (the 6:50) had a comparatively large amount of price movement, I decided to wait on more confirmation to determine whether the pivot level would be acting as a valid level of support. Given that it rejected the pivot again on the 6:55 candle, I took a call option at the touch of 1.32904 on the 7:00 candle. This trade wound up a four-pip winner.

My final trade of the day came back on the USD/CHF. Price came up and rejected the pivot level on the 6:50 candle. Of course, the same exact thing happened on the EUR/USD, which shouldn’t seem surprising as nearly all forex pairs show levels of correlation to varying degrees. This is especially true for all USD pairs, being that the USD is far and away the most traded currency out there as it essentially acts as the world’s reserve currency. As such, the value of the USD is easily the primary mover in each pair it’s involved in.

After the rejection of the pivot point on the 6:50 candle, price stayed around the level before re-touching on the 7:10 candle, where I took a put option at 0.92633. This trade stayed in my favor pretty much the entire time and it produced a 2-3 pip winner.

Using currency pair correlation can be a valuable tool when trading any foreign exchange instruments, including spot forex, binary options, or vanilla options. It can lend valuable information on what currency pair is leading the movement, and give a clearer idea of how trades set-ups might play out. For instance, if you’re taking a call option on a USD/CHF trade, yet the USD/JPY is near a resistance level (or the EUR/USD is close to a support level, for example) on the same timeframe, that might inform you that the trade has a lower probability of actually working out. Nevertheless, I don’t “cross-check” that often. Back when I traded four or more pairs at the same time with all charts on the screen at once, studying the correlation did come in handy on occasion. Now, I usually prefer just to trade what is in front of me on the lone chart that I’m paying my undivided attention to. But cross-checking a currency pair you’re trading against other related pairs can be a useful tool.

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