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Receding Economic Troubles Encourage More People to Invest
Markets are most likely getting back on their feet. Now, more people are investing money than a while ago. A few reasons that are encouraging them to take this step are – reduced fears that there will be an economic downfall, good economic data (globally) and the central-bank’s recent actions.
This year saw European stocks go up by 4.9%. People are being cautious about credit spending. Spain’s financing requirements for 2020 have been raised after the success of the country’s recent bond auction. Even though there are risks, industry watchers are quite certain that economic troubles are on the way to receding.
Euro-zone Recession Unlikely to Affect Other Economies
Despite the positive outlook in the market, industry watchers are quite skeptical. A recession in the Euro-zone has been predicted to take place in 2020. But, it is not likely to affect other economies. At less than 13 times the average (for the long-run), the Stoxx Exchange 600 sector index is trading more than 10 times the earnings for the coming year.
However, it is possible that the markets may have not given full credit to the offer made by the European Central Bank (ECB). It has presented a 3 year loan for banks. In December, an operation for long term refinancing, also known as LTRO, was taken. Through its first phase, net liquidity (new) of €193 billion was introduced to the financial system in the Euro-zone. This will suffice for the bank-funding needs that will come up in the short-term, bring down the risk of a system wide crisis and reduce the pressure currently faced by banks.
Banks can Borrow as much as €400 Billion
In addition to this, banks get to borrow as much as €400 billion in the second LTRO phase in February, said Morgan Stanley. The European Banking Association has promised that the actions that led to banks being forced to mark sovereign bonds will not be repeated. In light of this, banks are likely to purchase government bonds with ECB money. This will help them make the most of the high yields for building back profitability.
A RAY OF SUN
Planning Activities for Your New Years Eve Celebration
The majority of people invest a great deal of time organizing their visitor list or even selecting meals and ornaments yet carry out not dedicate a great deal of your time to organizing activities for their Brand new Years Eve celebration. They may thinking of having a live band or a DJ to conduct however or else they may merely expect the guests to entertain on their own through dancing to the music or even socializing with various other attendees yet perform little bit of else in terms of organizing tasks to maintain their visitors occupied at the event. Having said that, there are a great deal of enjoyable activities which can easily keep the attendees captivated throughout the evening.
Preparing on having karaoke is actually one great activity for a New Years Eve celebration. This activity promotes visitor engagement as well as enables the guests to entertain on their own throughout the evening. In reality karaoke could also deliver an extremely inexpensive form of home entertainment for all the guests even those that opt not to engage. Karaoke will definitely give the visitors along with popular music and also vocal singing at a considerably lower cost than that will cost to employ a live band or a DJ for the celebration. The popular music may not be actually as top quality as if you hired a specialist yet naturally that is actually also component of the fun from karaoke.
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Hosting a homicide enigma celebration is one more fun task suggestion which is actually ending up being very popular for New Years Eve parties. These activities are typically a supper cinema where guests are promoted to take part in the drama as well as collaborate or even alone to aim to fix the secret of the evening. You could either hire a men of actors to carry out the massacre secret and enable the attendees to communicate along with the actors to attempt to deal with the mystery or you may designate guests to depict various characters featuring the target, the murderer and the other attendees. The guests ought to maintain their identities a tip to keep everybody else supposing.
The meals can easily likewise provide home entertainment for the attendees at a New Years Eve celebration. You may provide things including fondue which require the attendees to participate in the planning of the food. One more tip for an activity is actually to create a celebration where the preparation of the meals belongs from the party. For example you could choose a sushi gourmet chef ahead to the event and show the guests effective ways to make sushi. The attendees may all create their very own sushi rolls and also the sushi prepped due to the guests can be worked as appetizers in the course of the celebration.
Tasks as basic as watching movies could even be enjoyable activities for a New Years Eve party. If your celebration has a certain style, you can easily decide on a series from motion pictures which reflect the motif of the party to keep your guests entertained throughout the movie. You could even provide foods which are actually generally located at a theater to match the concept of the occasion to the meals.
If the New Years Eve event will definitely consist of kids that is important to spend some time planning tasks for the kids. You may want to include some little one friendly activities and also activities which are suitable for little ones and adults. If there will be actually grownups present there certainly ought to also be tasks merely for the grownups as well to make sure every person has a good time.
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Advantages And Fixing The Wooden Staircases
Choosing the stairs to a private home or cottage, the vast number of people instinctively prefers the best materials for their production – a tree. Of course, the advantages of metal, stone or concrete, no one will dispute, but still, no other material is not able to bring to the shelter is the number of live energy, warmth and a sense of unity with nature. Moreover, in addition to these advantages, in the wooden staircases, there are plenty of positive qualities.
contemporary wooden staircases
In itself, the phrase “wooden staircase” is a collective, like the trees, which make up this element of the interior, a huge amount. Of course, the most popular and popular have always been and continue to be the staircase of oak. Despite the fact that the price of oak is slightly different from other breeds, the choice of this tree is quite justified – strength, durability, and presentable appearance are undeniable oak.
All advantages of wooden stairs
If we talk about the qualities of stairs, made of wood, especially if it is oak, ash or beech, they can list a lot. Environmentally friendly – recently the use of wood in construction, not only in the manufacture of stairs but in general, a person is justified by the desire to surround you with natural, environmentally friendly and safe materials. In addition, the tree has its own special energy and always fills the interior with warmth and comfort.
Design possibilities for use in interior wood are endless. Wooden stairs, from whatever wood it may be made, perfect fit in absolutely any room. Minimalism, classic, modern style – any direction is happy to be a tree in their interiors.
wooden staircases design
The availability of material also plays quite an important role – again thanks to the variety of different species, and thus the difference in the price, possibility to make a stair from a tree for their homes there for everyone.
Small wooden weight as compared with the same metal or concrete greatly simplifies the manufacturing process, lifting, handling and installation. This saves not just time but also money. To ensure the durability of wooden stairs is quite simple – the material completely unassuming in care. In addition, the holder of a wooden staircase is always possible to restore or update it: to paint in a different color, or perform a patina artificially aged wood.
Fixing a wooden Staircases
There are various types of mounting stairs made of wood – depending on the shape and width stair constructions:
The staircase on the string – the string is two boards that are mounted similar to each other. They are beaten and steps. Sufficient bulkiness of such structures dictates the conditions, because, as a rule, a staircase can be found in the spacious rooms. Find more in google doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RZKiTdVi2p6XytXf9M58WOLBFoJBZb8aPwhGD5QQQS8/
Wooden stairs have a very original look – the steps are mounted in such a way that it seems as if they “grow” out of the wall. Despite the fact that the visual design seems very delicate and does not inspire confidence, it is highly durable. This method of attachment is a favorite in the style of hi-tech.
Fixing the wooden stairs with the help – support beams – the most common, universal and reliable way. Depending on the width of the design may need one or two beams.
Wooden staircases for small spaces
A spiral staircase takes up little space, but the width of the march, in any case, must be at least a meter. These designs look very stylish and unusual.
Sometimes combined design for the installation of wooden stairs. Steps themselves may be of different shape; the stairs can expand or contract and bottom-up, etc. Such a variety of designs, colors, shapes and designs is also a strong argument for wooden stairs.
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Find The Correct Journey With One Of These Vehicle Purchasing Suggestions
So, the time has arrived so that you can purchase a new automobile. There is something you need to know if you want to make sure you get the most effective car for your investment. In this article, you will end up given assistance to help you get your ideal car.
Prior to starting your automobile shopping quest guide out precisely how much of a payment you can afford. Make time to write out a spending budget to see how much money remains over monthly. In this way a step, it is possible to stay away from getting into a predicament the place you set an economic strain on your finances.
When automobile buying, program to remain the car dealership for some time. To avoid a rushed offer, You’ll will need enough time to allocate to store shopping. Use the complete evening provided you can. In case you are pushed for time, you could always revisit another time.
Even before you proceed to the dealership, shop around. You can study about rewards that are offered in the event you spend some time on community dealer’s websites. If you know what 1 car dealership offers, you can use it as being a negotiating position and just might get a far better package.
Prevent becoming sidetracked when you are shopping with a automobile lot. With so many cars offered, it is simple for all of your research and likely to head out the window. Remember, you have to have a precise idea of the automobile you want before you set up foot on the good deal, and you should not enable the salesperson guide you from your primary goal.
If you are like you can be talked into points effortlessly, ensure an individual will go to the car dealerships together with you. Deliver another person with you for talks and also to inquire you might forget to question. Let them know precisely what you’re looking to purchase and how significantly you need to spend before you go.
Leasing cars is a great way to do your own personal examination brings. This will help you get a better notion of what it is want to drive. Go on a long streets trip to discover how the auto appears approximately the neglect. This is an excellent way to get comfortable with the vehicle before making the decision to purchase it.
Never be satisfied with the cost that’s looking for the automobile when you’re searching for one. You should be a fantastic negotiator and then try to knock just a little from the value. Every single vehicle dealer recognizes that they’re going to need to negotiate anyways, so that they have the automobile appear like it costs over they’d be satisfied with.
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Usually do not get each of the extras presented through the negotiation. These matters involve expanded warranties, very clear jacket and material proper care options. You can normally acquire these functions once you have ordered the auto for a fraction of the cost. Also, do yo actually want to pay for these particular handful of characteristics above the duration of the financing.
Will not foundation your vehicle buying decision only on value. Whilst price is undoubtedly significant, so will be the trustworthiness of the dealership. You need to look for a location that is known for excellent customer satisfaction and ranking behind the cars they sell in case you have any problems in the future.
Don’t buy a vehicle online from someone without having checking out and going it out very first. Take someone who is in case you are not mechanically willing. Also be cautious about offers that seem as well very good to be true. If you’re not great with automobiles, so attempt to take along someone who is aware of them, men and women will make the most of you.
Prior to deciding to go out to the dealership when you find yourself looking for a vehicle, talk to your bank or lending institution. Find out how a great deal of personal loan you might be qualified for. By doing this, you will understand what you can manage to devote, and you will know what sort of automobile to search for.
Investigate the resale value of the auto you are considering. Using this method, as soon as the time comes to sell the vehicle you are acquiring, it will be easy to have a respectable amount of cash back again from it. You may not would like to find yourself saddled with an automobile since you are obligated to pay more than it is possible to sell it for.
To help make your talks go efficiently when selecting a fresh automobile have at least a fifteen percent advance payment preserved. Having a advance payment, you will be able to reduce your interest rate and payments and possess leveraging when speaking about your business in options. You might find that you will web far more cost savings by not buying and selling an auto in and offering it on your own.
Break down all of your current different discussing points in line with the various earnings facilities that this car dealership has. This means you should be negotiating onwarranties and cost, interest rates, trade-in something and benefit different that may be up for negotiation. Using this approach can get you the most effective general importance for that vehicle you decide to purchase.
When looking for an automobile, whether it is new or aged, ensure you take it for any examination generate. Provided you can image your self traveling it day in and outing which means that this stage cannot be emphasized adequate, you ought to get an understanding for your personal vehicle to find out.
Buying a new automobile can be extremely the inconvenience when you don’t know what you really are undertaking, as was mentioned in the beginning of the post. Take advantage of the tips mentioned in the article above so that you will end up with a automobile you could be proud of. Make absolutely certain you invest some time and you are sure to possess a productive experience.
Grow Back Receding Gums
Strategies And Guidelines To Help You Care For Your Tooth
You are here simply because you are needing to discover what is necessary to have wonderful the teeth. And, you’re not gonna abandon without having some exceptional advice. Make sure that you give consideration as you get around towards you through these ideas simply because it’s time and energy to get seriously interested in your the teeth.
Once a year watch your dental practitioner a minimum of. A dental practitioner can find issues that you might not discover, and may by-ray your the teeth to trap any teeth cavities earlier. Your dentist can also advise toothpastes and mouthwashes which can be used to tend to the mouth while you are in your house, too. Read more here can you reverse receding gums.
Remember you are your food consumption, and so are your pearly whites. Your teeth get discolored in the event you smoke a consume and great deal reddish wines often. Change the foods you eat if you wish whiter tooth. If it’s dim going on your mouth, your teeth will certainly get dim as a result.
Make positive changes to brush each seven days. Trying to keep 1 over this is merely releasing harmful bacteria for your mouth area, which is unlike the objective of cleaning. If you have a tooth brush by using a removal brain, just affect the go every two months. Nearly anything found in the mouth over this really is high-risk.
Several prescribed drugs can cause free of moisture mouth area. You possibly will not realize it, if your treatment influences the volume of saliva you generate, it can injury your gums and the teeth. Consult with your physician to figure out when your medicine is associated with your long-term dried out oral cavity. If that’s the way it is, probably you will get different meds. The dentist will be able to suggest solution for all those issues or even.
Dental Pro 7
Tend not to allow unidentified soreness go alone. There are various reasons you could possibly truly feel pain in your tooth or jaw. You may be experiencing and enjoying the decreasing of a information tooth or maybe you have created contamination. Make an appointment with your dental office without delay in order to avoid further more problems. It is better to find out it really is minimal, rather than to ignore it until it is actually key.
Be sure you thoroughly clean your tongue. Are you currently remembering to help keep your tongue thoroughly clean at the same time, even if you may clean your pearly whites frequently? Cleansing your tongue is vital, specifically if you would like your breathing to scent neat and clean. Be sure to scrape or, at the very least, brush your tongue regularly.
Cleaning is merely successful if you do it correctly. Your tooth brush needs to be held an angle. Moreover, you need to use speedy back again-and-forth motions to clean your the teeth. Make certain you don’t clean way too intensely, as you could cause harm to your gums. Ultimately, don’t forget to brush your tongue, either.
To stop tooth decay and maintain your pearly whites as wholesome as you can, remember to brush your teeth after each meal. The more time that food items remains in your mouth, the greater the chance for decay. Even though cleaning immediately after food is not always achievable, try the best. If you are incapable of remember to brush, chewing on some dental chewing gum is a good substitute.
It is important that you simply make typical trips for the dental practitioner. The specific consistency of your own visits can vary greatly based upon your problem. A lot of people feel every 3 to a few months is essential, and some recommend annually. For those who have not really completed so. you must question your dental office what is right for you.
Brush all of the surface areas of your the teeth. Bacteria enjoys to conceal around the secret areas of pearly whites, even though many people assume that they just need to clean the surface areas which can be obvious. These are the basic locations where a variety of dental care troubles can take place. Whenever you remember to brush, ensure that you clean the surface, on the inside, and chewing types of surface of each and every teeth.
As soon as on a daily basis floss your the teeth by using a top quality floss no less than. Meals becomes stuck in the middle your tooth and regardless how effectively you brush your the teeth it is possible to not obtain it all out. Use floss to gain access to those hard to attain locations to ensure the foodstuff does not make cavities inside your pearly whites.
Cleaning your pearly whites twice daily is a terrific way to keep mouth troubles from increasing. The first time to brush is within the day, cleaning every little thing, which contains dried out inside your mouth over night. When would be following foods, after which before mattress also.
Make an effort to rinse off the mouth area out with h2o once you are completed if you are planning to drink or try to eat something that is acidic. Rinsing with normal water will help to get rid of the acid solution from the foods or ingest. If the acid solution is allowed to remain on your teeth, your enamel will start to degrade.
In the event you loathe flossing, consider utilizing an interdental solution instead of floss string. These products appear to be plastic selections or sticks, and they are generally quicker to deal with than string. Additionally, you can utilize the non-floss part as being a simple dental pick for achieving tough to achieve sides. They’re worth every penny, although they may charge a little bit more than floss!
Avoid foods and liquids that are full of acid solution if you do not can clean immediately after consuming them. Consume green tea, coffee and soft drink using a straw whenever you can to limit speak to. Brush your the teeth or rinse off the mouth with drinking water right after ingesting citrus fruit tomato plants, fresh fruits as well as other acid fruits.
Produce a commitment to dental treatment a family group experience. It’s not only you that may benefit from suitable dental treatment. All of your loved ones might take their own health to a completely new levels right here. Focus on dental care treatment and struggle the other to follow along with by way of. Even remember to brush teeth jointly in order to go into the habit of smoking!
Bleaching your the teeth is an effective method of getting a brighter look but you could in fact damage your teeth by bleaching. It is advisable to steer clear of bleaching in case you have sensitive the teeth or periodontal illness. Speak with your dentist should you be unsure if bleaching remains safe and secure for you personally.
While you are cleaning your the teeth, exercise your strategy. Support the brush at an direction as the bristles directed within the path that gum area meet the pearly whites. forth and Back should be the motion you brush in. Clean each and every surface area on the top and underside.
A proper smile can be the step to showing an excellent initially perception, as we discussed. Be sure you placed the over guidance to good use. People will find out how very much far healthier and much brighter your the teeth are getting to be.
Your Suggestions About Vehicle Fix Is Correct In The Following Article
Learning standard automobile restoration may help you in countless techniques all through your way of life. Apart from saving money from using it in a store, it is possible to educate others how to perform very same. Look at this article for approaches to correct stuff that generally break in different makes and models of cars.
Use caution when touching the electronic parts on your own automobile. You must not feel cords except when the complete product is switched off. You need to observe the alert labels in the different parts of your car holding some parts can be hazardous even when your vehicle is turned off. Porsche Dealers
Be accessible to wondering any queries that go across your brain. Vehicle fix is an extremely sophisticated factor. You will possess inquiries, and don’t sense threatened about requesting them. You possibly will not entirely realize why the fixes had been essential from the beginning or how expensive the present scenario is really in the event you don’t.
In relation to auto repair, less costly is not always a good thing. You would like somebody that is experienced in your brand name of automobile being taking care of it. When you might get with a good friend do your essential oil change to acquire meal, anything at all more complicated is better kept into a skilled. You don’t want to have to cover added in the future to repair all those “maintenance”.
Look up reviews online for system shops in your town. This can articulate volumes about their customer support abilities along with their talent in solving problems. It will allow you to find a store that has every thing you’re seeking.
Keep a DIY tool package with your trunk area. You will need to possess the equipment required to modify a tire, and they also probable was included with the vehicle. Should you not have 1 however, get a lug jack and wrench. Then have a screwdriver system, plug wrench system, ratchet set up, torque wrench and adjustable wrench, too. Prevent low-cost equipment. Pick resources which will final the exam of energy, particularly when they’re required.
Ensure your auto tech is allowed to focus on your particular auto. Electric motor automobiles are complex models and every brand has special characteristics. Some brands need particulartools and pieces, and procedures. Several normal automobile specialists possibly absence these materials or dont have them readily available. Without these products, they can’t resolve your car or truck.
Think about taking photos of all the aspects of your automobile prior to take it straight into be repaired in an vehicle entire body shop. Some retailers may well strip your car or truck to justify invoicing you for further fixes. Make sure you keep track of the way your car is looking in case such as this would occur.
Keep with Original Devices Company (OEM) parts. In case your vehicle demands components, select OEM pieces around common ones. For maximum overall performance, you need to have the OEM elements which can be approximately the manufacturer’s specifications. When general pieces are less costly, they’re typically a reduced quality compared to the original ones. This means that you could pay much more later for alternatives.
You need to keep an eye on all the dealings and repairs with your storage area or dealership. If you want to document a problem, you have got to document what went down. If you want to promote your automobile, keeping these papers will even enable you to tell purchasers in regards to the maintenance you probably did in the vehicle.
Keep a log which includes information about any upkeep that you have possibly carried out on your own car. To help make things easy, set this log on your glove area box. This data can help the professional discover what is happening much more swiftly if you find a problem with the auto.
Surprisingly, there are some shady auto repair companies that can take your more recent auto tires and move them with older auto tires. They prey on the unaware, individuals who don’t shell out much awareness of their auto. Label your tires prior to deciding to fall your car or truck away. In case your tires have already been correctly rotated or changed out for more aged auto tires, this will help to the thing is.
Expect to be questioned about extra service through taking your vehicle right into a retail outlet. Nevertheless, you don’t need to take them high on this. Merely get accomplished what you ought to get carried out. If you think someone is pressuring you also much, move ahead. Though it may be their job to try to sell yourself on as far as possible, you have to feel good with the person who you will be working with.
When a portion on your own auto needs to be exchanged, have an OEM (Unique Products Producer) part. It is recommended never to just place any outdated general component inside your motor vehicle if you wish your vehicle to perform in the highest possible stage. Although OEM components are more expensive, they can be worthwhile eventually.
Possessing a automobile is surely an pricey proposal, but mending you can price much more. Correct repair of your automobile is the best way to make sure it can not must be fixed. Make sure you are generating the right selections in order to keep your vehicle maintained effectively by looking at the info in this article.
Eating Healthy Meals Can Help You Lose Weight 2
Eating Healthy Meals Can Help You Lose Weight
As you begin your weight loss challenge try to think long term. Weight gain over a period of time adds up to serious health issues and once the cycle of putting on a few pounds every year starts, it’s hard to stop. View your present weight loss goals as an investment in the future of your health. This is not just about fitting into a favorite pair of jeans, it’s about living longer in greater health and happiness.
When trying to drop the pounds, be cautious of foods that claim to be fat-free or have no trans fats. This can be a good thing, but sometimes, these foods may have tons of sodium or sugar that will hinder you in your weight loss goals. Be sure to read the nutritional facts before purchasing.
Save calories all year long on the drinks, as well as the meals. Have a diet soda instead of a sugary soft drink or add sparking water to your white wine for a marvelous spritzer. Other non-threatening drinks for dieters include low-cal ice tea, sugar-free lemonade and the always-trustworthy water.
If you’re making a weight loss diet for yourself, make sure to really read food labels. Just because something is labeled “non-fat” or “diet” does not make it good for you, and often these foods are really quite high in calories. Check the serving size and calories and see if it’s really that great for your diet.
See a doctor when deciding to create a diet and exercise regimen. A doctor can tell you if you if you have special needs or if you need to watch out for certain activities. Sometimes weight gain is caused by hormones or thyroid malfunctions. A doctor’s diagnosis can possibly prevent months of disappointment.
Be aware of the ‘weight loss plateau’. This is when your weight loss suddenly stops for no reason. It is very frustrating, but the only thing you can do is to tweak your diet slightly or alter your exercise routine. Sometimes all it takes is cutting a few extra calories or walking that extra mile. If you shake up your routine somewhat, you will find that you overcome the plateau and progress will return.
Slow the pace to lose more weight. You may not realize the detrimental effect that eating fast can have on your health. The faster you eat, the slower your body is signaled that you have eaten enough. If you eat more slowly, than your body will be able to more accurately send you the signal to stop eating.
Establish your goals before you start your diet. You might find easier to stay motivated and keep track of your progress if you make your goal to fit into a certain dress size or have a certain waist measurement rather than reach a given weight. You will gain muscles thanks to exercise and it is hard to determine what would be an ideal weight for you.
Hopefully you are now mentally prepared to take on the challenge of losing weight with determination and vigor. You now have a plan of action in mind and reminders of it posted on the door of your refrigerator. Today you are armed with the knowledge you need to facilitate your weight loss program and meet the goals you have set for yourself. Today you are ready for your weight loss success!
Heed This Advice To Slow Down Hair Loss
Heed This Advice To Slow Down Hair Loss
Hair loss is a problem that effects both men and women throughout the world. Fixing this problem can be an issue if you do not know how to go about doing so. In the following article, you are going to be given crucial advice that will help you deal with hair loss.
If you are a woman experiencing hair loss do not use products intended for men. These products can have lasting effects on your reproductive system and may cause hair growth in unwanted areas or amounts. The product is being sincere when it warns that it is not for use by women.
If you are losing hair, try massaging your scalp with a bit of coconut oil before you shampoo it. Spending a few minutes on a scalp massage is not only relaxing, but the extra circulation that it stimulates may help the hair follicles better receive nutrients that they need to grow.
Try to reduce your level of stress on your body if you want to slow down your hair loss. When your body is under stress, your body channels energy into repairing the body instead of growing hair. So the rate of your hair growth slows, causing your hair to thin. Try to treat your body with more care and do not exert yourself. You might see an improvement in your hair growth.
Have your iron levels checked if your hair loss coincides with symptoms like pale skin and fatigue. You may be anemic, and a simple blood test can help you and your doctor decide if an iron supplement or an iron-rich diet might reverse your hair loss, along with your other symptoms.
Consider your diet to avoid hair loss. Increase the amount of proteins that you have in your diet. If you increase the amount of beans, eggs, sea food, sprouts, almonds, yogurt, tofu and soy milk in your diet, the protein in them is going to make your hair and your scalp much healthier and reduce the risk of hair loss.
There are 6 types of food that should be eaten to prevent hair loss. They are: tuna, oysters, nuts, dark green vegetables, poultry & eggs and diet supplements. All of these foods will have essential vitamins and minerals that you will need to keep your hair full and growing correctly.
If you are going to use hair styling products on your hair, make sure to take it all out of your hair at nighttime to prevent hair loss. Keeping these products in all night allow the chemicals to sink further into your scalp, which can make your hair fall out.
Massage your scalp. This helps with preventing hair loss and helps hair grow back. Massaging your scalp will help the blood and nutrients circulate in your scalp. Just rub your head with your fingers in a slow circular motion. When it gets warm and tingly it means the blood is flowing.
As was stated in the beginning of the article, hair loss is a problem that both genders have to deal with. Knowing what you can do to help fix hair loss is the only way you will get your hair back. Use these tips to get the hair you never knew you could have!
Need Practical Weight Loss Tips?
Need Practical Weight Loss Tips?
Everyone is looking for some practical weight loss tips.
The fastest way to losing those few extra pounds is the most basic of all weight loss tips: cut down your consumption of food. I know. That is easier to say than to do. Most weight loss tips about food consumption focus on slightly changing your eating habits. If you need the snack break, do it. The other class of weight loss tips is exercise. Studies have shown that people who walk faster tend to maintain their weight better than people who walk more slowly. If excess weight is a serious concern for you, the best of the weight loss tips is to consult with a qualified weight loss management expert.
Weight loss is something almost everyone struggles with sooner or later. “How to lose weight” is not the only question you should be asking. Make self-acceptance just as equal in importance to weight loss. Going for true self-worth gets you to stare the problem right in its eyes. It is strongly advised you get help if many wounds are surfacing. There are many great books and resources on weight loss self esteem, body image, and true self-acceptance that will take you in new directions.
What I am saying here is that the real problem is not how to lose weight, or what to eat, etc. the real problem is self judgment. Our society today certainly struggles with a weight epidemic. When it comes to our weight and health, a reasonable diet and sufficient exercise always prove superior. Fortunately there is diet information everywhere we turn.
Understanding your body and how it functions is key in forming a good diet. If you watch television, then you’ve surely been bombarded with diet information from some fitness guru. A great place to begin your search for diet information is online. Many diet plans offer a variety of meals that contain low amounts of fat, carbs, and calories. The key to dropping weight is eating healthy and acquiring a daily exercise routine.
Whether you’re looking to start that new celebrity diet, or simply desire some diet information, you will find it on the World-Wide-Web. With proper diet and fitness benefits, your body will soon transform into that size six you crave. It’s time to live healthy, and rid yourself of that burden, which too often destroys your confidence, as well as your body.
There is no quick fix when it comes to weight loss, but if you make gradual improvements across a number of areas, the combined effect will put the brakes on the obesity snowball and have your weight loss snowball rolling before you know it.
Try These Simple Tips To Prevent Hair Loss (2)
Try These Simple Tips To Prevent Hair Loss
If you are one of the millions of men who are worried about losing your hair, don’t give up hope. There are a number of treatments out there which can help stop or even reverse hair loss. This article can help you sort through these alternatives and find the one that’s best for you.
If you want to avoid damaging your hair, which could lead to hair loss, then don’t use a brush on it when it’s wet. It’s best to just dry it with a soft towel, and let it dry naturally. Also, if you like to use a leave-in conditioner, keep the product away from the scalp.
To increase hair health and reduce risk of hair loss, make sure to get enough zinc in your diet. Zinc deficiency is thought by some people to contribute to hair loss, although this is not thoroughly confirmed. Still, eating more zinc can improve general health, which will reduce chances of any health problem, including hair loss. Food sources of zinc include red meats, crimini mushrooms and summer squash.
One simple hair loss remedy that is often overlooked is a scalp massage. When taking a shower or bathing, it is just a simple matter of massaging your scalp for a few minutes to stimulate circulation. This stimulates the hair follicles and helps wash away dirt and deposits that have accumulated throughout the day.
Keep an eye out for dandruff. Dandruff has a negative impact on both your hair and your skin. It is important to address the problem as soon as you see it. There are a variety of home remedies, including using neem leaves and fenugreek seeks, that can help you get rid of dandruff and promote healthy hair growth.
A vitamin A deficiency causes a hardened scalp which causes oil and sweat below the skin. This is detrimental to the health of your scalp, and it causes flaky dandruff and dry hair. Make sure you have enough vitamin A in your diet. It is found in many leafy vegetables.
Excessive stress can cause hair loss in men and women. Stress can be emotional, such as from the loss of a family member. Or, it can be physical, such as from an injury. If stress is a cause of hair loss, try to learn coping skills and try to cut down on work and lifestyle stress.
Think about starting out on a vitamin regimen in order to prevent further hair loss. Vitamins B, C, D, and E have all been known to help strengthen and fortify the chemicals in your body, as well as supporting your body’s cellular growth. Starting a multi-vitamin regimen might just help you prevent hair loss.
As you have seen, just because you’ve started to lose your hair doesn’t mean that you are doomed to go bald. If you make use of one of the many options that are now available, you can soon expect to see great results. Before you know it, you’ll have a healthy head of hair again.
Weight Loss and Diet Pills
Weight Loss and Diet Pills
They’ve tried many supplements on the market and failed, and wonder if there really is a weight loss program than can work for them. I understand that I should consult a health provider before taking supplements for weight loss. Weight loss approaches that target diet, exercise and motivational support have the highest success rates. #1 source for weight loss, health, fitness, bodybuilding, personal training and general health and fitness related information and services – Brandon, Florida. Most weight loss supplements have a single action, usually targeting metabolic increase. Calcium supplements don%u2020t promote weight loss as well as dairy products. While all dairy foods are a good source of calcium and protein, not all products contribute as well to weight loss as others. A real weight loss solution requires working with your biochemistry, not against it. See also facts on fat loss supplements, patches, recipes for rapid weight loss, clinics & obesity support groups. Because exercise can cause weight loss, they were asked not to alter their exercise patterns for the study%u2020s duration. Getting the basics of fat loss nutrition right, along with the right kind of exercise, will lead to weight loss. Focus on fat loss nutrition, rather than actual weight loss. Your health should always be the number one thing anyone should consider, especially with weight loss. Anyone who has dieted and kept weight off knows this is the right approach to weight loss success. Lean muscle tissue can therefore be stimulated by exercise to burn energy and promote the weight loss process. The fat calories are said to be flushed out in urine, resulting in rapid weight loss. Perhaps the most common sort of weight loss pill are those that work by decreasing appetite. Setting goals that are impossible to reach will only result in frustration and may lead to the abandonment of the weight loss program. For safe, healthy weight loss, you must preserve your muscle tissue (including heart muscle) and burn fat instead. You can also turn to weight loss products like diet pills that will facilitate your weight loss program. The more you exercise the easier the weight loss! Only then will you be able to accomplish your weight loss goals! Exercise and proper diet are necessary to achieve and maintain weight loss and muscle definition. Make the most important step of your life and start to achieve your own personal weight loss goals today! If you’ve been researching weight loss programs, your head is probably spinning. Since muscle cells burn calories even when at rest, adding more muscle also helps increase your metabolic rate and further enhances weight loss. Calorie restriction and glycemic load in diet Calorie-restricted diets differing substantially in glycemic load can result in comparable long-term weight loss. The consumption of grapefruit with each meal was said to increase the metabolic rate, burning fat and enabling rapid weight loss. A successful weight loss diet is all about energy in vs. I might caution that for weight loss newcomers, Burn the Fat is not really all that simple. Mostly, it’s the attention allotted to each and every element of successful weight loss. Weight Loss Resources has a great set of tools to help you find a way of dieting you can live with. Most nutrition experts are less happy with the recommended weight loss. The sensible solution to weight loss, Quick Trim isn’t going to deprive you of everything you know and love. For over a two decades, Cybergenics has developed fitness and weight loss products that get results. Individual weight loss will vary and depends on your metabolism and body composition. Read more about a weight loss breakthrough… To estimate how many calories you need to consume daily for weight loss, simply multiply your body weight (in pounds) by 10. Read about rapid weight loss tips and diets. The best way for weight loss is balanced nutrition and active lifestyle. For weight loss to be truly healthful, you need to establish enjoyment for habits of healthy metabolism, regular exercise and proper nutrition. Water Often overlooked, consumption of water often contributes to weight loss. Antioxidants Since weight loss usually involves a mild process of detoxification, with the body burning fat and sometimes other tissues, antioxidants may be useful.
You’ll never burn fat and lose weight by starving and skipping meals! Weight Loss for All – natural weight loss exercise, diet, nutrition, metabolism, energy balance and fat oxidation information to help lose weight naturally. One final caution: the research shows how calcium helps people who are dieting lose weight faster and may help keep the weight off. You may also need my weight loss pills, it can definitely help you lose weight. People who lose weight rapidly are less likely to maintain the loss for life. There are as many different recommendations for supposedly successful diets as there are people trying to lose weight. The only way you can lose weight and keep it off is to get your natural fat-burners functioning normally and at peak efficiency again.
All of the subjects received an individualized diet plan that provided 500 fewer calories than their usual intake. Cooking is a great way to put calcium-rich dairy into your diet plan. When choosing a plan, please review the overall diet plan carefully. By providing you with a clear head and by working as a metabolism aid, Ginger Root is the perfect compliment to any diet plan. Then decide your diet plan. No diet plan would work properly without good nutrition, therefore it is a major factor in the SixPackNow Program.
There has always been a lot of debate over the effectiveness of hoodia diet pills. Compare prices on popular prescription diet pills and purchase them from top online pharmacies. Like those that affect the hypothalamus however, stimulant-based diet pills should be used in moderation and never on a long-term basis. Adding supplemental diet pills to the mix will help speed up the process and return positive results. You can also turn to weight loss products like diet pills that will facilitate your weight loss program. But remember diet pills should be combined with two steps, that is, a balanced diet and exercise. Also try losing weight with diet pills, vitamin pill, exercise equipment, natural metabolism gain and more cellulite pound busting diet methods.
They’ve tried many supplements on the market and failed, and wonder if there really is a weight loss program than can work for them. Consult your physician before starting any weight loss program or taking any dietary supplements. Setting goals that are impossible to reach will only result in frustration and may lead to the abandonment of the weight loss program.
See also facts on fat loss supplements, patches, recipes for rapid weight loss, clinics & obesity support groups. The fat calories are said to be flushed out in urine, resulting in rapid weight loss. Typically with weight training alone, the fat loss is equal to the muscle gain, give or take a few pounds. Certain dietary modification can have much greater impact on fat loss than with weight training alone. For individuals attempting to achieve fat loss for aesthetics, the intensity of weight training can be a double edge sword. Make the most important step of your life and start to achieve your own personal weight loss goals today!
We Americans (children and adults) are more confused than ever about what constitutes a healthy diet. Researchers to study how food choices affect cancer risk Study to compare Mediterranean diet with standard healthy diet. To get the most out of your healthy diet and regular workouts, you need healthy metabolism.
Heed This Advice To Slow Down Hair Loss (3)
Heed This Advice To Slow Down Hair Loss
Both men and women can suffer from hair loss, and if you’re worried about this health issue, you’re not alone. There are things you should know about losing your hair that will help you stay informed about hair loss and what you can do about it. Here are some useful tips.
Hormonal imbalance has been proven to be one of the main causes of hair loss. This is true in women as well. Pregnant women or women who have gone on and off birth control run a risk of hair loss, but this hair loss is usually temporary. Still, be aware of these concerns.
To keep from damaging your hair follicles, let your hair air dry as much as possible. Using blow dryers or roughly drying your hair with a towel weakens your hair follicles and can even break hair from their roots. If you have to use a blow dryer, be sure to use it on its lowest setting.
Hair loss and grooming tips! To help you stimulate hair growth, brush your scalp regularly. A hard brush with a lot of space between the bristles will massage your scalp, which in turn, will help stimulate blood flow to your scalp. This blood flow will bring in nutrients that your hair needs to stimulate growth!
Watch the use of birth control pills. Hormonal changes, like the ones caused by using oral contraceptives, can cause hair loss. The hair loss is often temporary, but it is worth discussing with your doctor. Other birth control options are available which might not have the same hair loss effect.
One thing which can lead to hair loss is a poor diet. If a person is not getting enough proteins in their diets, this can cause more loss of hair. It is also critical to include vitamins and minerals, such as zinc and iron, into a balanced diet plan to aid in reducing hair loss.
Mix aloe vera with your shampoo and use it daily. Aloe vera is a miracle plant that has many different healing properties. By mixing aloe vera with your shampoo it will help prevent further hair loss and can also encourage growth back to the hair loss area.
Stress is one of the biggest causes of hair loss in most cases. To prevent this, try to calm yourself. Do not worry about the past or future and focus on current events. Start meditating regularly and use deep breathing exercises to relax your mind and body.
If you are using hairdryers, straighteners, curling irons or other hair tools, you need to limit your usage to prevent hair loss. Let your hair air dry, and make use of hair care products that can aid in styling your hair without the need for heated tools. This way your hair will be healthier and less likely to fall out.
With these tips, you’re better equipped to tackle the task of addressing hair loss, whether you’re worried about hair loss related to illness, medication, genetics or even pregnancy. Even if you’re at risk for hair loss, your hair can still be a source of enjoyment and self-esteem, if you just stay informed.
Easy Tips To Follow In Losing Weight
Easy Tips To Follow In Losing Weight
You may truly need to lose weight, but no one effectively changes their lifestyle around unless they really want to. You need the motivation to make the change, and more than that, you need the knowledge to assist you in properly changing. Here are some diet-friendly tips you can use to your benefit.
A good way to help yourself lose weight is to keep a food diary. Write down everything you eat and drink for several days so you can see where your extra calories are coming from. Go through your diary and decide what you can eliminate or change to improve your diet and reduce your caloric intake.
To enhance your efforts at weight loss, make an effort to sneak vegetables into your “normal” foods. This is easily done by adding grated vegetables such as zucchini, carrots, onions, or peppers into meatloaf, spaghetti sauce, or soups. Don’t have time to grate and chop? Frozen vegetables will be your ally here; they can be easily added to a marinara sauce or pot of chili to amp up the flavor, fiber, and nutrients – and no one need be the wiser.
If you’re looking to lose weight one of the most important things to have is patience. You are not going to lose it all overnight. It will take months of dedication, watching what you eat and building an exercise regiment, to stand a chance of success. So, set up a plan that will get you there over the long term. Weight loss is not a sprint, it’s a marathon.
Use less fat in cooking. Hidden fat is everywhere in food, so if you cook at home, you can reduce the amount of fat in your meals. When using meat, try to trim as much fat away as possible and avoid frying. Remove the skin from chicken or turkey before eating. When preparing sauces or dressings, use low-fat ingredients. Use herbs and spices to add extra flavor. If you have a recipe that won’t work unless you use a high fat ingredient, try to use less of it.
If you’re trying to lose weight, it’s important to make sure you stay away from sugary-tasting foods and drinks, even those sweetened artificially! The reason for this is that when your body takes in a sweet taste, even if it’s not sugar, it primes your insulin pump for a sweet “hit” to come. Your body produces insulin, preparing for more calories to arrive and you become hungrier, making you eat more. So stay away from the sweet tastes and you will find that your appetite goes down.
Cutting down on the amount of sauces, gravies, and salad dressings you consume is very important to reaching a healthy weight. If you are concerned about your food being too bland you can add as many herbs as you want to without worrying about adding additional fat and calories.
As mentioned at the start of this article, you need to want to change your life before it’s actually going to happen. Once you’ve made that decision and actually wish to pursue a diet, the tips you’ve learned here are just the icing on the cake (no delicious pun intended!). Use them to help you get in better shape.
currently a recent college grad who enjoys sunny days, driving around in her yellow VW bug, putting pen to paper, listening to good music, and idolizing martha stewart.
Receding Economic Troubles Encourage More People to Invest
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 16:28:00 GMT
2020-04-03T16:28:00Z en-gb Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2020 The Guardian https://assets.guim.co.uk/images/guardian-logo-rss.c45beb1bafa34b347ac333af2e6fe23f.png
What initially seemed localised is worldwide and economic pain will go on for longer than first thought
Travel bans. Sporting events cancelled. Mass gatherings prohibited. Stock markets in freefall. Deserted shopping malls. Get ready for the Covid-19 global recession.
Up until a month ago this seemed far-fetched. It was assumed that the coronavirus outbreak would be a localised problem for China and that any spillover effects to the rest of the world could be comfortably managed by a bit of policy easing by central banks.
In the coming weeks the Bank of England can be expected to cut interest rates to 0.1%
Continue reading. Global economy Business Stock markets Economic growth (GDP) Economics Coronavirus outbreak World news UK news US news Federal Reserve Bank of England Airline industry Rishi Sunak Andrew Bailey Interest rates Eurozone China Asia Pacific Europe Travel & leisure Services sector Italy Spain Germany US economy
Sun, 15 Mar 2020 11:39:42 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/15/prepare-for-the-coronavirus-global-recession Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA Larry Elliott 2020-03-15T11:39:42Z Coronavirus: Bank of England makes emergency interest rate cut
Fears for UK economy grow as January GDP growth flatlined before Covid-19 hit Europe
The Bank of England has cut interest rates in an emergency move to bolster the economy during the coronavirus outbreak.
The monetary policy committee voted unanimously to slash the bank rate from 0.75% to 0.25% at its first unscheduled meeting since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis as part of a coordinated package of measures alongside the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget.
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Continue reading. Interest rates Bank of England Business Economics UK news Coronavirus outbreak Monetary policy committee Mark Carney FTSE Stock markets Economic growth (GDP) Office for National Statistics Manufacturing sector
Wed, 11 Mar 2020 12:09:54 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-bank-of-england-makes-emergency-interest-rate-cut Photograph: John Keeble/Getty Images Photograph: John Keeble/Getty Images Phillip Inman, Richard Partington and Mark Sweney 2020-03-11T12:09:54Z US Federal Reserve makes emergency interest rate cut
Central bank moves to protect economy from coronavirus outbreak
The US Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates in an emergency move to protect the world’s largest economy from the coronavirus outbreak, ramping up the global response as the disease spreads.
In a dramatic intervention as the G7 group of wealthy nations promised action around the world to protect jobs and growth amid the unfolding crisis, the US central bank said it was cutting interest rates by half a percentage point to a target range of 1% to 1.25%.
The G7 issued a statement saying wealthy nations would use “all appropriate policy tools” to tackle the economic fallout.
The UK government outlined contingency plans, including limits on police and fire service callouts.
Growing numbers of companies announced profit warnings and told staff to work from home.
Continue reading. Coronavirus outbreak Jerome Powell Federal Reserve Mark Carney Stock markets Bank of England Economics Business US news World news UK news International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank Bank of Japan Interest rates US interest rates Global economy US economy Economic growth (GDP) Economic policy FTSE Politics
Tue, 03 Mar 2020 18:42:34 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/mark-carney-tells-g7-bank-of-england-will-give-necessary-coronavirus-support Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Richard Partington, Julia Kollewe and Kalyeena Makortoff 2020-03-03T18:42:34Z Analysts and investors lose their bearings in the coronavirus fallout | Nils Pratley
Financial measures look like the wrong weapons to combat a healthcare crisis
“Make this stop.” The headline on Bank of America’s rejig of its economic forecasts for Europe summed up the mood in financial markets.
City analysts and investors have lost their bearings. How do you make sensible estimates about the financial fallout from a virus with the potential, as in parts of China, to bring economic activity to a standstill?
Continue reading. Coronavirus outbreak US economic growth and recession Economic growth (GDP) Stock markets Financial sector Economics Business UK news World news
Fri, 28 Feb 2020 18:53:00 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2020/feb/28/analysts-and-investors-lose-their-bearings-in-the-coronavirus-fallout Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images Nils Pratley 2020-02-28T18:53:00Z Wall Street plummets as coronavirus spreads in Europe – as it happened
US, European and Asian stock markets gripped by pandemic fears
That means £62bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 during today’s session, representing a heavy loss for the first trading day of the week.
We’ll be back tomorrow from 8am. -KM
European markets have closed for trading, with all major indices having lost 3.5% or more:
It’s a sea of red across global markets.
But European stocks are the biggest losers, with Italy’s FTSE MIB still the worst performer.
More than £63bn has been wiped off the FTSE 100 so far today, though we still have about 20 minutes of trading to go.
Oil prices have taken another tumble, with Brent crude now down 4.8% or $2.86 per barrel at $55.64.
The FTSE 100 continues to lose ground and is now at its lowest level since early October 2020.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, explains that London’s blue chip index is suffering due in part to the slump in oil and mining stocks, which rely on Chinese demand for a good chunk of their growth.
For the UK, the FTSE100 has been a particular target for investors and stands down over 5% in the year to date, given its particular exposure to oil and mining as well as the obviously affected areas of tourism and travel.
By the same token, and perhaps of some consolation to longer-term investors looking for an entry point, is the reminder that mark downs such as this can be indiscriminate as sentiment deteriorates, and that there will be certain sectors which will be less affected by the outbreak.
This is the biggest slump in European shares since the middle of 2020, according to Reuters.
But in what looks like an attempt to avoid panic, the World Health Organisation has issued fresh statements clarifying that they’re still not categorising the coronavirus outbreak as a “pandemic” just yet.
Using the word pandemic does not fit the facts
We must focus on containment while preparing for a potential pandemic
Shares on Wall Street have plummeted at the opening bell and European markets are also a sea of red, with the Italian market the worst hit, amid reports of rising deaths from the coronavirus in the country.
The turmoil in financial markets comes as there are reports of more deaths in Italy, which is at the centre of the coronavirus crisis in Europe. A seventh person has died in the country, according to the Ansa news agency.
The falls on Wall Street have dragged the MSCI world stock index into negative territory for the year so far. It’s down 2.7% on the day.
Wall Street has opened sharply lower – even worse than expected. The declines come after US indices hit record highs last week.
A quick look at the markets before Wall Street opens. Stocks and oil have tumbled further.
Sea of red getting a darker shade of red as US markets open
As the virus spreads in Europe, investors are dumping stocks and rushing into safe-haven assets such as gold (at a seven-year high today). Futures are pointing to sharp declines on Wall Street when it opens for trading in less than half an hour. The Dow Jones is expected to open 800 points lower.
Last week, Wall Street’s main indices rose to record highs as optimism spread among investors that the global economy would bounce back from the coronavirus hit.
There has been a sixth death from the coronavirus in northern Italy, according to the state broadcaster RAI.
Economists at ING have looked at the impact of the virus outbreak on economies in Asia, in a note entitled: “Holidays in hell: slumping tourism will cost Asia $105bn-$115bn in 2020”.
Robert Carnell, chief economist and head of research, Asia-Pacific, at ING says:
The impact of the coronavirus on economies in Asia is potentially huge, as tourism in the region takes a beating. If we assume that tourism to and from China basically grinds to a halt in 2020, and extra- regional tourism also diminishes, then the cost to the region from lost tourism revenues alone is approximately US$105bn-$115bn.
The World Health Organization has praised China for the measures it’s taken to stop the coronavirus spreading. Bruce Aylward, the head of a visiting WHO delegation, said the “incredibly difficult measures” probably prevented hundreds of thousands of cases in the country.
He also said several data sources suggested there is a general downward trend in the number of of infections being reported by China’s National Health Commission, despite some statistical problems.
The German business association BDI says several manufacturing sectors are expecting a shortage of supplies from the Far East in coming weeks due to the coronavirus. Affected sectors include engineering, cars, pharmaceuticals and paper.
The more than 5,000 German companies in China are currently severely restricted in procurement, production and sales.
HSBC’s search for a permanent chief executive may have suffered a setback today, after one of the reported candidates pulled out.
[T]he Group would like to state that Jean Pierre Mustier confirms he will remain with the bank.
UniCredit would also like to remind everyone that it has just launched a new strategic plan, Team 23, and that the whole management team, including Jean Pierre Mustier, is fully focused on its successful execution.
An interesting point from influential economist Mohamed El-Erian, who serves as chief economic adviser at Allianz, the insurer.
Stock markets have been on a tear in recent months even as economic fundamentals have appeared weaker. The coronavirus outbreak could test that divergence – particularly given central banks’ limited arsenal.
.#CoronaVirus shock is a test of the technicals (FOMO/Buy-The-Dip conditioning) that helped #stocks overcome fundamentals/valuations headwinds.
A key element is whether #markets distinguish between #CentralBanks’ willingness (high) and ability (low) to counter the economic shock.
A quick Brexit update via the politics live blog: don’t bet on everything being finished by the new year.
Amélie de Montchalin, the French Europe minister, on Monday said that France will not sign up to a bad trade deal with the UK just to meet Boris Johnson’s December 2020 deadline. Johnson has set this deadline by ruling out an extension to the post-Brexit transition.
Je serai à Bruxelles demain et à Londres vendredi avec un message #Brexit clair : ce n’est pas parce que Boris Johnson veut un accord coûte que coûte le 31/12 que nous signerons sous la pression du chantage ou du calendrier un mauvais accord pour les Français. #Les4V @France2tv pic.twitter.com/v9VU8zPyaE
Investors are pricing in an increased chance of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in the coming months. A rate cut would aim to support growth at a time when the coronavirus outbreak adds to risks to the eurozone economy.
Eonia money market futures dated to the ECB’s July 2020 meeting show about 5 basis points [0.05 percentage points] of rate cuts are now priced in, up from 3.5 bps a week ago. That equates to roughly a 50% chance of a 10-bps cut versus 35% last week.
It marks a turnaround from the start of 2020, when a stabilisation in data had led to a view that the ECB might be encouraged to start raising rates from next year.
What does the most successful investor in modern history think about the coronavirus outbreak, amid market turmoil? Ignore the headlines.
If you’re buying a business you’re going to own it for 10 years, or 20 years, or 30 years. The real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?
You don’t buy or sell your business based on today’s headlines. If it gives you a chance to buy something that you like and you can buy it even cheaper it’s your good luck, basically.
Futures plummet 800+ points on #coronavirus fears
Here’s what Warren Buffett has to say about the sell-off:#AskWarren pic.twitter.com/esUFXX5FBv
Coronavirus fears are pushing European shares on the Stoxx 600 towards their worst day since 2020 – the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.
The falls suggest that investors are starting to price in a direct hit to European economic growth that could hurt company profits. Central banks are already watching carefully.
The renewed concerns on the spread of the coronavirus have pushed oil prices back down – ending a relief rally over the middle of February.
The price of futures for Brent crude oil, the North Sea benchmark, have fallen by $2 per barrel to $56.40 – a steep 3.6% decline. Futures prices for its North American counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, also declined by 3.5%.
Travel restrictions and factory shutdowns caused by Covid-19 are already leading to big problems for oil-producing countries. We believe the virus’ effect on oil demand will shave some 400,000 barrels a day from global consumption growth, taking us to the lowest level in nearly a decade.
Another aspect of the flight to safe havens is visible on currency markets, with the demand ascent of the US dollar.
Sterling has lost 0.5% against the dollar on Monday. One pound bought $1.2909 at the time of writing.
Smoking kills half of all people who take it up, but Philip Morris International (PMI) wants to be seen as part of the solution even though the company continues to make and market cigarettes around the world.
A large dose of scepticism on that fairly positive reading from Germany on the business climate: economists are essentially saying that the worst is yet to come.
Better expectations from industry are usually bullish sign, said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, but it’s difficult to interpret these data at the moment.
As we type, global—and in particular EZ—equities finally have woken up to the fact that what has been very draconian measure in China to curb the spread of the virus—at least from the point of view of the economy—are now spreading to the rest of the world.
News over the weekend that several towns in Northern Italy have been effectively shut down – and air and rail traffic suspended between Italy and Austria – seems to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. In short, financial markets are now starting to price in an increasingly nasty economic shock at the start of 2020.
With the virus now at the gates of Europe, with the the spate of new cases reported in Italy, survey data are very likely to deteriorate rapidly in coming months.
A worsening of hard eurozone data is likely to follow since the fragility of global supply chains means even small disruptions in China’s output could still have large repercussions for Europe down the line.
It’s now a 3.3% fall for the FTSE 100. It is down by 244 points, to 7,158 points.
As you can see from the following chart of daily performances over the past year, it’s quite a striking fall.
We mentioned earlier that investors were seeking safe-haven assets. It appears to be a full-on pivot away from riskier assets this morning, with money flowing to bonds.
The yield on the UK’s 10-year gilt has fallen by 7 basis points (0.07 percentage points) to hit three-week lows of 0.508%. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have fallen as more investors look for less risky assets like government debt.
Here we go! An all-time high for the US long bond. https://t.co/RXeoYTIr4b
An interesting reading from the Ifo Institute in Germany: its widely followed business climate indicator has actually beaten expectations – a reminder, perhaps, that the much of the coronavirus’s financial effects so far are down to fear, uncertainty and doubt.
The Ifo’s business climate reading came in at 96.1 points, compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for a fall to 95.3. The institute is sticking to its first-quarter growth forecast of 0.2%. Ifo president Clemens Fuest said in a statement:
The German economy seems unaffected by developments surrounding the coronavirus.
That FTSE 100 selloff has deepened: it’s now down by 2.8%, more than 200 points.
Germany’s Dax is down by 3.4%, France’s Cac 40 has lost 3.5%, and the FTSE MIB in Italy has dropped by 4%.
Here’s a handy heat map from Hargreaves Lansdown showing which stocks have fallen: it’s almost all of them. Some 96 of the FTSE 100 were down at the time of writing.
Mr Staley, 63, who has led the bank since December 2020, has told colleagues he expects to leave the group by the end of next year, according to two people briefed on the bank’s plans. He could stand down at the annual meeting in May 2021, they added.
A rough timetable for Mr Staley’s departure was in place before Britain’s top financial regulators recently launched an investigation into his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, the paedophile financier. But one of the people said the probe had “focused minds” on the bank’s board of directors and injected a sense of urgency into the process.
Take a look at the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100: it’s companies exposed to European tourism that are most affected.
The flight to safety for investors fearful of the economic consequences of the coronavirus outbreak has pushed gold prices to their highest since February 2020.
Spot gold prices rose by 2.1% on Monday to hit highs above $1,679 per troy ounce.
A quick diversion from coronavirus: a shakeup in the UK’s struggling estate agency sector.
If you need an indication of why Italy is bearing the brunt of stock market losses this morning, here’s why Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco has warned that the outbreak could wipe a quarter of a percentage point from Italy’s economic growth this year.
“I’m already worried now but if we don’t see a material improvement by September, I’d be really worried,” Visco said. “You need two quarters to realize and understand.”
Visco lent weight to his argument by warning there’s a risk of a “mini de-globalization” if pessimism and fears about further supply-chain interruptions leave the economy suffering for a protracted period. “This shouldn’t be ignored.”
Renewed fears over the coronavirus outbreak have prompted steep falls on European stock markets – most notably in Italy, which has suffered the most serious outbreak outside Asia.
In Milan the FTSE MIB fell by 3.4% in early trading.
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of economics, business, the eurozone and international markets.
The coronavirus outbreak has gained pace outside of China, and stock markets in Europe are expected to react heavily. The World Health Organisation on Sunday reported 78,811 confirmed cases, but 367 new cases came outside China, a larger proportion than previously.
We typically build inventories in advance of Chinese New Year and, as a consequence, are well stocked with cover for several months and do not expect any short-term impact
If delays to factory production are prolonged, the risk of supply shortages on some lines later this financial year increases. We are assessing mitigating strategies, including a step up in production from existing suppliers in other regions.
Continue reading. Business Stock markets Currencies Coronavirus outbreak World news Sterling Economic growth (GDP) House prices Economics Bonds
Mon, 24 Feb 2020 16:42:22 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/24/coronavirus-spread-china-stock-market-sterling-ftse-italy-korea-gold-business-live Photograph: Antonio Calanni/AP Photograph: Antonio Calanni/AP Kalyeena Makortoff (now), Jasper Jolly and Julia Kollewe (earlier) 2020-02-24T16:42:22Z UK factory output hits 10-month high – as it happened
Rolling coverage of business and economics news as data shows UK manufacturing sector activity rose to its highest level since April last year
We also had a mega-day for PMI data:
Billionaire Richard Branson attempted to shrug off coronavirus fears as he promoted the launch of his first cruise ship aimed at young travellers in Dover today.
The adult-only cruise ship is meant to have a ‘festival environment’, featuring sundeck yoga, a vinyl record store, a tattoo studio, 20 restaurants, and a running track, with entertainment including DJ sets and drag queens.
Obviously what happened in Japan was horrendously unfortunate. But I think the longer-term impact will be negligible. I think the fact that we’re going out of America means that I don’t think we’ll suffer. People are booking as much as they’ve ever booked.
The FTSE 100 has recovered some of its losses this afternoon.
London’s blue chip index is trading just 0.09% lower in afternoon trading, having started the session down by 0.6%.
The Financial Times (£) has published the first major interview with former Goldman Sachs boss Lloyds Blankfein since he retired from the CEO role in 2020.
Blankfein insists he is “well-to-do”, not rich. “I can’t even say ‘rich’,” he insists. “I don’t feel that way. I don’t behave that way.”
He says he has an apartment in Miami as well as New York. But he abjures most of the trappings.
Despite the positive headlines from the latest PMI reading for the manufacturing sector, there are some warning signals for the road ahead, writes the Guardian’s economics correspondent Richard Partington.
The latest snapshot suggests that the outbreak of the coronavirus in China has weighed on overseas orders for UK factories. In a worrying sign for future output, some orders from clients in Asia have been cancelled altogether.
These disruptions are threatening global supply chains as businesses look for new supply routes away from the epicentre of the outbreak whilst under pressure to maintain normal business levels.
Regardless of whether the UK manufacturing PMI figure is being interpretted by some analysts as a false positive, the pound is now trading nearly half a percent higher against the US dollar at 1.294.
(But before you get too excited, that’s only the highest level since. Wednesday)
Investors are turning to safe haven assets amid coronavirus fears, sending gold prices to a seven year high of $1,634.27 per ounce this morning.
Car sales in China have collapsed by 92% as the coronavirus shutdown wreaks havoc on the automotive industry, writes Mark Sweney.
The China Passenger Car Association said that “barely anybody” has looked to buy cars in the first half of February and most dealerships have remained closed as the coronavirus shutdown takes its toll on businesses across China.
Reuters reporter Andy Bruce highlights the same point, that increased delivery times which were factored into UK manufacturing PMI for February actually amount to a “false signal on strength” in the figures:
Great point about the better-than-expected manufacturing PMIs from @ClausVistesen (h/t @PriapusIQ)
Coronavirus impact on supplier delivery times has added an entire point to the headline UK factory PMI – ie. essentially a false signal on strength. https://t.co/cnhALi7sr6
Why? The PMI is designed to interpret longer delivery times as a sign of good times/strong demand, which is usually the case
Supplier delivery times has a 15% weight in the PMI index
ING’s developed markets economist James Smith says the coronavirus impact on supply chains is overshadowing positive UK PMI data.
He notes an ‘alarming’ drop in the supplier delivery component of the manufacturing PMI survey, which is a sign that deliveries are taking longer to fulfil.
Slightly alarmingly, the nine-point drop in the supplier delivery component of the PMI – a sign that deliveries are taking longer – is the sharpest month-on-month slide in the survey’s history (since 1992).
In normal times, an increase in supplier delivery times would be interpreted as a positive signal. It is taken as a signal that firms are grappling with more orders, such that it is taking longer to fulfil them. In this case, though, the rationale is rather less positive – and suggests that not all of the rise in the manufacturing PMI is for ‘good’ reasons.
Industries hit by the coronavirus are expecting governments to step up spending to help offset the economic impacts of the outbreak.
At the very least, the IATA airline trade body seems to be pricing in fiscal stimulus over the coming months:
We don’t yet know exactly how the outbreak will develop and whether it will follow the same profile as SARS or not.
Governments will use fiscal and monetary policy to try to offset the adverse economic impacts. Some relief may be seen in lower fuel prices for some airlines, depending on how fuel costs have been hedged.
What is the estimated impact of #COVID19? In a SARS-shaped scenario,
Asia-Pacific carriers: 13% full-year loss of pax demand & $27.8 bn revenue loss in 2020
Globally: 4.7% loss on global pax demand & $29.3 bn global revenue loss for the industry.
Fraser Munro, a public sector finance statistician at the Office for National Statistics, gives some context to the government borrowing figures:
Borrowing has been generally falling since 2009/10. However, in the financial year-to-January 2020, borrowing is up £5.8 billion (or 14.9%) on the same period in 2020/19. This increase underlines OBR’s expectation of a borrowing across 2020/20. #PSNBex https://t.co/y9MYKz3XkS pic.twitter.com/xY9gX17NMj
The PMI reading has helped push the pound higher, with sterling now trading up 0.3% versus the US dollar.
Public sector net borrowing figures (excluding banks) shows the UK posted a smaller than expected budget surplus of £9.8bn in January, down 18% compared to the same time last year.
That is also lower than Reuters forecasts for an £11.3bn surplus.
(Correction: Apologies for the typo below, where the manufacturing output index figures were mistaken for the manufacturing PMI as a whole. That has been corrected in the original post)
Flash estimates for the UK’s manufacturing sector, shows output hit its highest level in 10 months with PMI coming in at 51.9. That is compared to January’s reading of 50.0.
That’s a solid performance, but it comes with a number of caveats, including warnings that supply chains are being affected by the coronavirus outbreak.
There also reports that extended production stoppages in China following the COVID-19 outbreak had weighed on export sales and the receipt of manufacturing components from suppliers.
February data pointed to the sharpest month-on-month drop in the suppliers’ delivery times index in nearly three decades of data collection, while pre-production inventories fell to the greatest extent since December 2020.
Celebrations over slightly higher-than-expected German factory output may be short-lived.
Danske Bank says there has been a drop in shipping activity, signalling a greater fall in manufacturing output. That could feed through into manufacturing PMI data very soon:
It may take some time to materialise but the number of ships underway signals a sharp deceleration in global manufacturing.
Downside risks to global PMI manufacturing in coming months. pic.twitter.com/E9A7peKTIs
Number of ships underway has declined more than 5% since December. Downside risks to PMIs in coming months? pic.twitter.com/L8vK9vMC3H
The eurozone’s PMI data suggests the economy performed reasonably well despite supply chain and travel disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
IHS Markit’s chief business economist Chris Williamson says:
The eurozone economy managed to pick up some momentum again in February despite many companies having been disrupted in various ways by the coronavirus, which caused supply problems and showed signs of hitting travel and tourism numbers in particular.
The flash PMI has climbed to a six-month high, consistent with GDP growing at a quarterly rate approaching 0.2%.
In particular, the widespread delivery delays seen in February bode ill for production in March unless new deliveries can be secured.
While the February survey data are welcome news in a month in which media headlines have been dominated by fears of economic growth being hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, the full immediate impact may not yet be apparent.
The euro is edging even higher as investors digest eurozone PMI data for February.
Flash manufacturing PMI for the bloc came in better than expected at 49.1 versus forecasts for 47.5. While output declined, it did so at a weaker rate than in January, when the reading came in at 47.9.
February flash #Eurozone #PMI shows #manufacturing & #services output growth edged up; index up to 6-month high of 51.6 (51.3 in Jan). Services PMI at 52.8 (52.5). Manufacturing contraction slower; PMI up to 12-month high of 49.1 (47.9); output index at 8-month high of 48.4 (48.0
Market analysts are surprisingly upbeat about the German manufacturing data, which is helping support the eurozone currency.
The euro is now trading around 0.3% higher against the US dollar at €1.08.
Investors are cheerful that the German manufacturing numbers have sharply bounced back up, it certainly strengthens’ the bull case for the Euro.
Germany Composite Output PMI edges down fractionally to 51.1 in February (51.2 – Jan) as services growth softened. Manufacturing output declined at its slowest pace for nine months as industrial weakness continues to bottom out. More: https://t.co/Hip55OTx5F pic.twitter.com/kq39s8K1O6
It’s not a bright picture for German manufacturers, as flash manufacturing PMI for February came in below the 50-mark at 47.8. That’s slightly better than the January reading of 45.3 as well as Reuters forecasts for 44.8.
DATA FLASH: French PMI data is a mix-bag
Flash manufacturing PMI out of France disappointed, coming in at 49.7 which is below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 50.7.
If the coronavirus ends up resulting in a contraction in passenger growth for Asian carriers, it will be reminiscent of the decline that took place at the height of the SARS virus outbreak in 2003.
That was the only decline for regional airlines in nearly two decades.
European stock markets are in the red at the start of trading:
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of the world economy, the eurozone, financial markets and business.
Airlines have been told to brace for a near $30bn (£23bn) hit to revenues in 2020, as fears over the coronavirus outbreak lowers passenger demand for air travel.
The sharp downturn in demand as a result of COVID-19 will have a financial impact on airlines—severe for those particularly exposed to the China market. We estimate that global traffic will be reduced by 4.7% by the virus, which could more than offset the growth we previously forecast and cause the first overall decline in demand since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.
Airlines are making difficult decisions to cut capacity and in some cases routes. Lower fuel costs will help offset some of the lost revenue. This will be a very tough year for airlines.
Continue reading. Business Coronavirus outbreak Economic growth (GDP) Manufacturing data Manufacturing sector Services sector FTSE Sterling Currencies Stock markets
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 14:56:04 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-cost-global-airlines-30bn-business-economics-markets-business-live Photograph: PinPep/REX/Shutterstock Photograph: PinPep/REX/Shutterstock Kalyeena Makortoff 2020-02-21T14:56:04Z Retail sales rebound after worst year on record – as it happened
Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as textiles, clothing and footwear sales drive stronger-than-expected 0.9% improvement
The FTSE 100 is the major holdout across global stock indices thus far on Thursday, up by 0.2%, with Wall Street indices weakening and European stocks retreating from record highs.
Another big Wall Street deal announced today: Morgan Stanley is buying online stockbroking platform E-Trade for about $13bn.
The combination will have $3.1tn in client assets and 8.2m retail client relationships and accounts – with E-Trade shifting the balance towards less wealthy customers and a more direct, lower-cost approach.
Stocks have dipped at the open on Wall Street.
The Nasdaq, the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 have all fallen by 0.2%.
US stock market futures suggest that Wall Street is going to drop at the opening bell, following the lead of European markets.
The FTSE 100 is the only major index that is not in the red – and it has only edged up by less than 0.1% (possibly thanks to the dollar surge, which makes US earnings relatively more valuable for companies that report in sterling).
The owner of Victoria’s Secret will sell a majority stake in the controversial underwear brand at a $1.1bn ($850m) valuation, in a deal that will also see its chief executive resign.
Foxconn, the biggest maker of Apple’s iPhone, has warned that its revenues will be hit by the coronavirus, but it did not say exactly how big the impact might be.
The European Central Bank’s top officials thought that easing trade tensions had reduced risks to the eurozone economy, according to minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting – although the meeting took place before the extent of the coronavirus epidemic became clear.
The meeting of the central bank’s governing council ended on 23 January, shortly before Covid-19 was acknowledged as an emergency that could damage the global economy.
The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook, related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, remained tilted to the downside, but had become less pronounced as some of the uncertainty surrounding international trade had receded.
It was felt to be important to acknowledge these positive signs and care should be taken to avoid being too slow to change the risk assessment.
Who knew that the £20 was the most popular bank note in the UK? Anyway, there’s a new one out today.
British manufacturers reported an increase in orders this month, according to the the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) monthly gauge.
The balance of manufacturers seeing increased orders rose to a reading of -18, from -22 in January, slightly above the consensus forecast of -19 from economists. Expectations for the next three months reached their highest since February 2020.
It is encouraging to see manufacturers reporting some early signs of a turnaround in activity, but it’s probably still too early to say whether we’ve seen the end of the slowdown in the sector.
Notwithstanding improving optimism, the sector is still grappling with longer-term uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
The US dollar is on something of a tear at the moment: the trade-weighted basket of currencies measured against it has hit its strongest level since May 2020.
The Japanese yen has fallen – even though it is usually considered something of a safe haven – amid fears of recession in the world’s third-largest economy. It may have also been affected by its proximity to China, the centre of the coronavirus epidemic.
I think this has really brought into focus the role the dollar is playing as a safe haven.
Broadly, we attribute the yen move to a combination of risk-on trade in equity markets, rising headwinds for Japan’s economy, and continued US dollar strength. The move may have been exacerbated by other factors, from rising Covid-19 infections in Japan to GPIF [Government Pension Investment Fund] outflows.
Some more reaction on the British retail sales rebound. It appears that experts aren’t quite convinced that the post-election bounce means the sector is out of the woods.
Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg, an investment bank, said:
One month does not make a trend. Retail sales are typically quite volatile. However, they do provide an early indicator of the much bigger category of household spending – which makes up about 70% of GDP.
So far, the data just show a rebound from the fourth quarter and not yet evidence of a strong gains to come throughout 2020. However, the uptick in spending along with the sharp improvement in household survey data at the start of the year suits our call that real household consumption is on track to recover solidly in the first quarter (+0.6% quarter-on-quarter) after the disappointing 0.1% gain in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Have UK consumers chosen ‘buy more big ticket items’ as their New Year’s resolution? Though UK retailers will certainly hope so, this will have required a real growth in consumer confidence. Last year was characterised by nervousness in the market, which led to muted spending and frustration for many businesses.
January’s ONS figures offer a glimmer of hope that this pent up consumer demand could now slowly be being released, but the jury is still out on this at the moment.
While promising, there is a need to remember the backdrop of this improvement, which has seen failures and insolvencies in the areas with the highest sales – both in terms of physical store footfall and a failure to successfully unify on and offline efforts into one seamless experience.
The need to meet these core customer needs will continue to challenge the sector, with global supply chain efficiencies also playing a key part. Survival of the fittest has never applied more, but as ever, retailers with strong brands and reactive and widely available lines will continue to do well.
A just after mid-morning update on markets: the FTSE 100 has given up almost all of its gains to trade flat for the day.
The Euro Stoxx 600 index is down by 0.14%, with Italy’s Milan-based FTSE MIB index down by 0.45% amid political uncertainty.
Here’s the full report on Lloyds Banking Group’s profits hit – and some bad news for its chief executive: he is no longer Britain’s best paid banking boss, as we earlier reported.
António Horta-Osório has seen his pay packet fall to a mere £4.7m, a 28% cut.
Horta-Osório, the chief executive, is now the second-highest paid UK bank boss, behind Barclays’ chief executive, Jes Staley. Staley was paid £5.9m for 2020 despite UK regulators launching an investigation over his links to the sex offender and disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein in December. Horta
The end of election uncertainty in December may be driving the improvements in the data, economists suggest.
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:
January’s official retail sales figures confirm that the decisive general election has released the handbrake of political uncertainty on consumers’ spending. The headline number has been depressed by a huge 5.7% month-to-month drop in fuel store sales – the biggest since March 2020 – driven by a rise in fuel prices and bad weather.
First signs that rebound in survey data in UK since December is turning up in hard data. Retail sales (ex fuel) up by fastest rate since May 2020 at +1.6%. The annual run rate remains soft (1.2%) but base case is it will improve during 2020 as pressures on hhld finances ease pic.twitter.com/URASUNtDeo
Textile, clothing and footwear stores recorded the strongest increase among the retail sectors, with volumes up by 3.9% compared to the previous month, the ONS found.
Food sales rose by 1.7% month-on-month, counterbalancing a 5.7% fall in fuel sales as prices increased.
British retail sales rose by 0.9% in January compared to the previous month, the best performance since March, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The numbers were mainly boosted by “moderate growth” in both food and other stores, despite rising fuel prices dampening volume, the ONS said.
Gold prices have held near seven-year highs this morning – after breaking the mark late on Thursday night as the coronavirus outbreak compounded concerns about slowing global growth.
The spot price of a troy ounce of the yellow metal rose above $1,612 late last night – the highest point since March 2020. This morning gold was trading at $1,609.
We continue to see value from an insurance and diversification angle, but would caution that absolute returns may be limited if coronavirus-related disruptions are largely limited to the first quarter.
An interesting story from the Belfast Telegraph this morning on the maker of the “Boris bus”: Northern Ireland’s Audit Office is to probe a £2.5m loan made by Invest NI to Wrightbus just months before the company went into administration.
Sinn Fein’s Caoimhe Archibald, chair of the committee, made the call after a number of concerns about the firm’s financial affairs were raised by experts in a BBC Spotlight investigation
Wrightbus, based in Ballymena, collapsed into administration in September 2020. About five months earlier, Cornerstone – the firm’s parent company – spent £1m buying back the shares held by Wright family member Dr Lorraine Rock, the programme broadcast on Tuesday revealed. [. ]
The top riser on the FTSE 100 this morning is Smith & Nephew, the maker of medical products such as dressings and surgical devices, after it beat expectations.
Smith & Nephew forecasted another year of revenue growth after topping annual sales expectations for 2020, helped by higher demand from emerging markets and growth in its sports medicine unit.
Maersk handles one in every five containers shipped by sea across the world, so it is on the front line of impacts from the outbreak. It has issued a warning on the impacts – but perhaps most strikingly there is no number put on the cost.
The outlook for 2020 is impacted by the current outbreak of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) in China, which has significantly lowered visibility on what to expect in 2020. As factories in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese New Year and as a result of the Covid-19 we expect a weak start to the year.
It is still early days to measure the overall impact[. H]owever, the weekly container vessel calls at key Chinese ports were significantly down compared [to] last year during the last weeks of January and the first weeks of February. Freight rates are expected to decrease due to dropping demand for containerised goods transport.
European markets have lost some ground in early trading – aside from in the UK, where the pound is slightly lower.
London’s blue-chip FTSE 100 is up by 0.2% to about 7,469 points, while the FTSE 250 has gained 0.4%.
Britain’s best-paid banking boss, Antonio Horta-Osorio, has taken a 28% cut in his £6.5m pay package, as Lloyds Banking Group reported a sharp fall in profits last year, writes the Guardian’s Kalyeena Makortoff.
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of the world economy, the eurozone, financial markets and business.
Few industries have been hit by the impact of the coronavirus outbreak harder than airlines. Air France-KLM and Qantas both reported costly hits to profits on Thursday.
Coronavirus resulted in the suspension of our flights to mainland China and we’re now seeing some secondary impacts with weaker demand on Hong Kong, Singapore and to a lesser extent, Japan. Other key routes, like the US and UK, haven’t been impacted.
Continue reading. Business Coronavirus outbreak Economic growth (GDP) Sterling Currencies Economics Stock markets Retail industry Manufacturing sector FTSE
Thu, 20 Feb 2020 15:00:50 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/20/airline-profits-hit-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak-sterling-pound-brexit-retail-sales-us-dollar-business-live Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images Jasper Jolly 2020-02-20T15:00:50Z UK inflation jumps to six-month high of 1.8% – as it happened
Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets as British prices rise faster than expected
The Nasdaq index in New York has hit its latest record high, with investors apparently circumspect about the risks of the coronavirus outbreak worsening and the prospect of central banks stepping in to help the economy along.
The Nasdaq composite index gained 0.6% in early trading on Wall Street, hitting 9,795 points for the new record.
ING Bank: UK inflation is set to fall over the next few months on lower household energy costs. Barring a more significant decline in economic activity, we think the Bank of England will ‘look through’ lower CPI and keep rates on hold this year. #forex #fx #currencies #fxstreet
Qatar Airways has spent about £460m on increasing its stake in British Airways-owner IAG to increase its holding to 25.1%, strengthening its position ahead of a change in IAG management, Reuters reports:
In an endorsement of the Anglo-Spanish group just weeks before its founder Willie Walsh steps down, Qatar said on Wednesday the move showed its support for IAG and its strategy.
Qatar previously held 21.4% of IAG, which also owns Spanish carriers Iberia and Vueling and Ireland’s Aer Lingus. IAG’s share price has risen by 52% in the last six months.
There’s a mighty row brewing around Britain’s biggest mining project in North Yorkshire.
The lack of ‘final’ offer, in Odey’s opinion, suggests that Anglo American would be willing to bid substantially more for Sirius, with the investment case remaining highly attractive for Anglo American, even at a materially higher bid level.
It’s still looking like an easy day for European stock market investors: blue-chip shares have notched up another record high.
The 0.6% gain for the Stoxx 600 index gives it a 3.5% increase for 2020 so far, and we’re only halfway through February.
Laura Ashley has agreed emergency funding with its bank, Wells Fargo, staving off the threat of bankruptcy.
The company welcomes the support from MUI Asia Limited and continues to review its working capital needs on an ongoing basis. The company will update shareholders in due course in relation to the review of its working capital needs.
Financial leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies (G20) will say that the coronavirus epidemic is a downside risk to forecasts of global growth, according to a draft communique. Private sector estimats of the cost suggest it could be big – but temporary.
Reuters has seen the document, ahead of the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors due this weekend.
Our scenarios see world GDP hit as a result of declines in discretionary consumption and travel and tourism, with some knock-on financial market effects and weaker investment.
A quick currencies update (on a pretty quiet day in foreign exchange markets): sterling has lost 0.1% against the US dollar, with brief gains from the inflation beat failing to hold.
“Pound hugs $1.30” is the headline from Reuters – perhaps not the most exciting development. It’s worth noting that against the euro the pound is at levels, above €1.20, not seen since the EU referendum in 2020 – barring the post-election result spike.
It was announced last night, but if you haven’t caught up yet, there are some pretty momentous plans in train for the UK’s post-Brexit immigration system.
The new policy represents a break with the past and is highly interventionist. As a member of the European Union, the government was only able to limit migration from non-EU countries. Under the new approach, the UK will be open to highly skilled workers from anywhere in the world, but the door to those with low skills will be closed.
Here’s the full detail on the inflation figures, from the Guardian’s Phillip Inman:
Inflation jumped to a six-month high of 1.8% in January after a surge in petrol prices and an increase in the cost of gas and electricity over last year.
US stock markets are looking up.
Futures for the S&P 500 suggest the US benchmark index will gain 0.2% when it opens later today, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is expected to rise by 0.3%.
Economists are wondering whether the Bank of England’s efforts to raise interest rates from historical lows will be short-lived, given fears over the state of the global economy.
Melanie Baker, senior economist at Royal London Asset Management, said:
Inflation rose closer to the Bank of England’s target, but underneath the noise of the headline figures, domestically-driven inflation still looks weak.
Business sentiment and the follow-through to activity data will, however, be the more important determinant of whether the Bank of England cut rates or not in coming months.
A prolonged shutdown in production activity as a result of Covid-19 could exert a drag on industrial production and disrupt global supply chains, which could lead to further inflationary pressures as the shortage of inputs and key components start to bite.
Looking towards the medium-term, a modest recovery this year that spurs further business activity, combined with continued upward pressure on wages due to a tight labour market could also give rise to inflationary pressures.
Some more reactions on the slight-surprise inflation reading – first of all from a man who a week ago would not have been expected to be in the spotlight, and his opposition, who is likely to leave the spotlight in April.
Conservative chancellor Rishi Sunak said:
Families across the country are better off as a result of the strong wage growth and low inflation over the last 18 months.
We want to go further to help with the cost of living – that’s why we’ve cut taxes for 31m people and given nearly 2.4m a pay rise through our record increase to the National Living Wage.
The Tories’ poor economic management has contributed to an unstable economy, with prices rising sharply for people already suffering from ten years of vicious cuts.
Successive Conservative governments have repeatedly blamed anyone but themselves for an under-performing economy.
The inflation reading may have taken economists by surprise (1.8% against a 1.6% consensus), but it may not have a major effect on interest rate prospects, economists suggest.
The figures were in line with the Bank’s January monetary policy report forecast, according to Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy. She said:
While CPI inflation rose for the first time in six months, the inflation figures were in line with the Bank of England’s expectations, so they are unlikely to move the dial on the outlook for interest rates.
CPI inflation still looks likely to slip back to 1.5% within the next few months and remain below 2% for the rest of the year. But for the MPC, the fact that inflation is evolving in line with its projections provides another reason not to cut interest rates in the near term.
House prices rose across the UK in December – the first time that has happened since February 2020.
Although the ONS did not give a specific reason for the increase, many economists have ascribed the rise in prices to the Conservative party’s majority won in the general election of 12 December.
Annual house prices grew across all regions of the UK, the first time this has happened in nearly two years, with London seeing its strongest growth since October 2020.
The consumer price index (CPI) of inflation (still the measure used by the Bank of England, despite the ONS’s best efforts) has faded over the past few years as the effects of the post-Brexit-vote devaluation of sterling have passed through.
The rise in inflation is largely the result of higher prices at the pump and airfares falling by less than a year ago. In addition, gas and electricity prices were unchanged this month, but fell this time last year due to the introduction of the energy price cap.
The UK’s consumer price index of inflation rose by 1.8% year-on-year in January, the fastest rate of growth in six months, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Economists had expected inflation of 1.6%. Prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year in December.
The FTSE 100 has now gained more than 1% today, or 77 points, to reach 7,459 points. The mid-cap FTSE 250 has gained 0.5%.
Stock indices have risen across the board in Europe, with the Stoxx 600 index up by 0.55%.
It feels like markets are looking for any excuse to feel positive at the moment. Apple’s coronavirus-linked iPhone sales warning earlier this week may have spooked investors briefly. However, markets have soon shifted their attention elsewhere.
An interesting update on the trade relationship between the UK and the EU: German exports to the UK fell to their lowest level since 2020 last year.
The UK is Germany’s fifth-largest customer, but exports fell 4.2% to €78.7bn. At the same time Germany’s total exports rose 0.8% year-on-year to reach a record high. Reuters reports:
German exports to Britain fell for the fourth year running in 2020, according to Statistical Office data seen by Reuters, as the weak pound dampened demand and uncertainty over post-Brexit trade regulations disrupted existing supply chains.
Exports of cars, aircraft and aircraft parts, electronic equipment and pharmaceutical products had fallen, the data showed
The main cause is the continuing uncertainty over the trade relationship after 2020, when the transition phase is over.
Here’s the torrid tale of the 737 Max’s almost three years since launching.
Troubles first emerged on 29 October 2020, when 189 people aboard a Lion Air flight from Jakarta crashed. In March Boeing’s fleet was grounded.
(May 22, 2020) Boeing 737 Max enters commercial service
Referring to the Federal Aviation Authority, the US regulator that certified the plane as safe to fly, another message says: “I’ll be shocked if the FAA passes this turd.”
One employee said in 2020: “I still haven’t been forgiven by God for the covering up I did last year.”
With the return of Boeing’s 737 Max to the skies not expected until late spring at the earliest, those effects on the US economy will be significant, according to economists.
Moody’s Investor Service, the influential credit rating agency, said that US economic growth will decelerate during 2020, in part because of the crisis at Boeing. In a note published on Monday its analysts said:
Boeing’s decision to temporarily halt the production of the 737 Max will weigh on Q1 GDP, subtracting as much as 0.5 percentage points, because of the effect on manufacturers down the supply chain.
Here’s Boeing’s full statement on the debris discovery, from a spokesman:
Safely returning the 737 Max to service is our top priority. While conducting maintenance we discovered foreign object debris [FOD] in undelivered 737 Max airplanes currently in storage.
That finding led to a robust internal investigation and immediate corrective actions in our production system. We are also inspecting all stored 737 Max airplanes at Boeing to ensure there is no FOD.
Some more on Boeing, a company so big that its travails have caused an appreciable dent in US manufacturing figures.
Boeing lost its crown as the world’s largest producer of planes in 2020 to fierce European rival Airbus – for the first time since 2020. Boeing produced only 380 planes last year, compared to Airbus’s 863.
The threat for Boeing is that the longer it idles its own machines and workers, the greater the risk of long-term damage to the supply chain.
Metro Bank has appointed a new chief executive – or rather, it has removed the word “interim” from his title.
European markets have gained at the opening bell, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.5% to about 7,421 points.
Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac 40 indices also gained 0.5% apiece.
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of the world of business, economics and markets.
Boeing has ordered inspections of its entire fleet of grounded 737 Max planes after it found debris in the fuel tanks of some, in the latest setback for the US planemaker.
A Boeing spokesman said that the issue would not change the company’s belief that the Federal Aviation Administration will certify the plane to fly again this summer. An FAA spokesman said the agency knows that Boeing is conducting a voluntary inspection of undelivered Max planes.
Continue reading. Business Inflation Economics Economic growth (GDP) Currencies Stock markets Boeing Airline industry Bonds Sterling Brexit
Wed, 19 Feb 2020 14:56:49 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/19/boeing-to-inspect-737-max-planes-after-finding-debris-in-fuel-tanks-business-live Photograph: Chris Howes/Wild Places Photogra/Alamy Photograph: Chris Howes/Wild Places Photogra/Alamy Jasper Jolly 2020-02-19T14:56:49Z Shares and oil prices jump after Chinese report of coronavirus treatment – as it happened
Rolling coverage of economics, business and markets as UK services grows at fastest since September 2020
It appears that investors think the worst of the coronavirus outbreak is well and truly priced in on stock markets, with a new record high for the tech-focused Nasdaq in the US.
Strong US data has also added to a more positive mood, thanks in part to ADP jobs numbers beating expectations spectacularly.
And it’s a record high for the Nasdaq, even amid a global public health emergency.
Investor sentiment was buoyed earlier in the day by a Chinese TV report that an effective treatment had been found. The World Health Organisation quickly played this down, but the gains in stock and oil prices were nevertheless sustained.
Confirmed: a strong open in New York.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both rose by 1%, while the Nasdaq increased by 1.1%.
US stock futures are pointing to a strong open on Wall Street.
Notable trade figures from the US: the trade deficit has fallen for the first time in six years in 2020 as the White House’s trade war with China curbed the import bill.
The US Commerce Department said on Wednesday the trade deficit fell 1.7% to $616.8bn last year, the first drop since 2020.
Goods imports tumbled 1.7% last year, with exports decreasing 1.3%, showing that the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda decreased the flow of goods.
An interesting reading from the US ADP private payrolls number – it’s an absolute blowout, the highest since 2020.
The ADP number is often seen as a sneak preview of the crucial non-farm payrolls, the key US labour market indicator. That’s due on Friday.
January @ADP payrolls 291k vs. 158k est. & 199k in December (revised down -3k); midsized businesses gained most at 128k, with small at 94k and large at 69k; natural resources & mining was only negative sector (-2k), while leisure & hospitality was strongest (96k)
Music streaming service Spotify has reported that it added a record number of subscribers at the end of 2020, but it made an operating loss as it spent on promotions.
Mike Lynch, the man once hailed as Britain’s Bill Gates, has submitted himself for arrest as he prepares to fight extradition to the US, where he faces fraud charges.
Since HP first raised these allegations more than seven years ago, Dr Lynch has steadfastly denied them and has worked hard to properly respond and set the record straight. The UK SFO previously investigated and did not pursue the allegations. Dr Lynch has now answered HP’s claims in the appropriate forum, the High Court in London, where he attended court every day of the 10-month trial.
During that trial, Dr Lynch testified about all of these allegations for more than 20 days. He has not hidden, nor has he shied away from defending his conduct. Having patiently and diligently defended the case in England for several years, he awaits the civil trial judgment. The US DOJ should not have commenced extradition proceedings prior to the judgment of the English High Court.
Just after midday the FTSE has retreated slightly, for a gain of 0.6%. Sterling is up by 0.2% against the US dollar at $1.3056, and by 0.4% against the euro at €1.1844.
Brent crude oil futures prices have also fallen back from the day’s highs, but are still up by 2.3% today.
An aside in the still extraordinary tale of Tesla in the last few days: even one of the investors responsible for the “Big Short” has had his fingers burned.
Steve Eisman said he covered his Tesla short “a while ago”
“Everyone has a pain threshold and when a stock becomes unmoored from valuation because it has certain dynamic growth aspects to it and cult-like aspects to it, you just have to walk away.”
Well let’s see what the market reaction is to this: a World Health Organisation spokesman says there is no known treatment for coronavirus.
The spokesman in Geneva said, via Reuters: “There are no known effective therapeutics.”
World Health Organisation Spokesman: No Known Effective Therapeutics Against This Coronavirus
– To Hold Press Conference On Coronavirus 1500 GMT (1000 ET)
Vodafone is to remove Huawei equipment from the sensitive, core parts of its mobile networks across Europe at a cost of €200m (£169m) over the next five years.
A quick stock market stock take: the FTSE 100 is up by 0.76%, flirting with the 7,500 point mark after the unconfirmed report of a coronavirus treatment buoyed investor sentiment.
The Euro Stoxx 600 index has gained 1%, with Germany’s export-sensitive Dax up by 1.2% and France’s Cac 40 up by 0.9%. Oil prices have held on to most of their gains, with Brent crude futures still up by 2.8%.
Protestors have blocked access to BP’s head office in London to mark the first day for its new chief executive, Bernard Looney.
Looney, who was visiting staff in Germany on Wednesday, shares the “deep concerns” of the climate protesters, BP said in a statement. He will set out his vision for BP’s response to the low carbon energy transition in a speech next week.
BP said Looney “hopes that what he has to say then will give people a sense that we get it and are very serious about working to address the problem.”
Across the Channel, PMI readings suggest that the Eurozone economy also expanded faster than expected thanks to services – despite really weak retail sales.
The PMI composite reading for the Eurozone was also stronger than flash data, at 51.3 points in January versus an earlier 50.9 expansion, IHS Markit said. (50 is the expansion mark.)
The final services PMI in January were better than expected. This indicates that recent service sector activity has been decent, despite the sharp decline in retail sales in December.
Eurozone Composite Output PMI records its best reading since last August, ⬆️ to 51.3 (50.9 – Dec). Services activity grew solidly, but slightly weaker than previously, but manufacturing output fell at softest pace since June. More: https://t.co/Had57oZwkj pic.twitter.com/BdHjpJiUMb
Some reactions on the services PMI data.
Pantheon Macroeconomics sugggests that the 16-month-high means the Bank of England’s growth forecasts for the first quarter may be too low. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at the consultancy, said that it was “another encouraging sign that the post-election recovery in the economy is gathering momentum”. He added
It’s clear responses received later in the month were much stronger than those at the start, consistent with the idea that the recovery is strengthening.
Strong rebound in Jan UK PMIs strengthens our view that the post-election rebound is real – but whether it is sustained is an open question & will hinge on future decisions made by hhlds & businesses. Also big volatility in PMIs has been a reason for caution before – in July 2020 pic.twitter.com/iRIwxnbdiF
Breaking off momentarily from coronavirus and PMI, new car sales in the UK fell by 7.3% in the first month of 2020, according to figures published today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
Sterling has risen against the euro and the US dollar in the wake of the services PMI reading.
Against the euro the pound is up by 0.4% for the day at €1.1853, while it gained 0.25% against the US dollar to reach $1.3063.
The election, and the consequent narrowing of Brexit possibilities, appeared to help UK business and consumer spending, IHS Markit said.
Tim Moore, economics associate director at IHS Markit, said:
January’s PMI surveys give a clear signal that the UK economy has picked up since the general election, as a diminishing headwind from political uncertainty translated into rising business and consumer spending.
Signs of greater willingness to spend and renewed positivity about the domestic economic outlook has helped lift service providers’ growth projections to the highest for just under five years.
The strongest reading for the UK services PMI in 16 months came because of increased confidence among businesses and consumers, according to IHS Markit.
The reading is consistent with UK GDP rising by approximately 0.2% in the first quarter of 2020, the data company said.
Survey respondents noted that the headwind from delayed decision-making had lifted since the general election and helped to deliver a return to business activity growth in January. This was also reflected in a robust improvement in order intakes, with the rate of new business expansion accelerating to its strongest since June 2020.
The British services sector expanded faster than previously thought in January, according to IHS Markit’s purchasing managers’ index.
The final reading for the closely followed index was 53.3 points, representing a stronger expansion than the 52.9 indicated by early data.
That oil price reversal is gaining momentum: Brent crude futures prices are up by 3% at the time of writing at $55.60 per barrel – having started the day just above $54.
US stock market futures have gained as well after the unconfirmed reports of an effective treatment from Chinese media.
The price of futures tracking the S&P 500 index of major US stocks have risen by 0.55% today, while the equivalent futures for the Dow Jones industrial average point to a gain of 0.7% for the blue-chip index.
Oil prices, weighed down by concerns on coronavirus’s impact on demand, have gained a dollar after the unconfirmed Chinese TV reports of a treatment.
Brent crude oil futures prices jumped from a low of $54.12 per barrel just after 8am to over $55.1 an hour later. They are now up by 2.2% for the day.
Stock markets have staged a rapid reversal in the last few minutes, apparently after a report of an effective treatment for coronavirus. The reports remain unconfirmed.
The FTSE 100 is now up by 0.5% at about 7,477 points, having previously been down by 0.3%. The Euro Stoxx 600 index, which measures large companies across Europe, is now up by 0.5% for the day, having previously dipped.
The biggest faller on the FTSE 100 is Imperial Brands, the tobacco maker, which fell by 9% after it warned that profits will be hit because of regulation on vaping products in the US.
The company, whose brands include Davidoff, Gauloises and Lambert and Butler, on Wednesday said profits in the first half of the year will fall by 10% and cautioned on full-year earnings because of the ban on some flavours of cartridge-based vapour devices and weaker consumer demand, Reuters reported.
Regulatory uncertainty and adverse news flow continues to affect demand in the US and Europe.
European markets have dipped mildly at the open, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.3% and the FTSE 250 flat.
France’s Cac 40 index has fallen by 0.2%, while Germany’s Dax is down by 0.26% in the first half hour of trading.
The truth of the matter is that [coronavirus’s] impact remains significant and unknown, and still demands immediate interest from most affected economies.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The coronavirus outbreak remains the dominant theme across the business world, with supply chains disrupted in a crucial manufacturing region, widespread travel issues, and market volatility as investors try to work out longer-term effects.
Airbus is constantly evaluating the situation and monitoring any potential knock on effects to production and deliveries and will try to mitigate via alternative plans where necessary.
The fact that there appears to be a slowing in independent incidents in countries outside of China and a slowing in the rate of transmission in cases outside of Wuhan province appear to be making investors more comfortable for now.
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Wed, 05 Feb 2020 15:02:29 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/05/companies-count-mounting-costs-coronavirus-outbreak-sterling-ftse-brexit-uk-economy-services-pmibusiness-live Photograph: Airbus Photograph: Airbus Jasper Jolly 2020-02-05T15:02:29Z Pound falls sharply as Boris Johnson prompts hard Brexit fears – as it happened
Sterling hit by tough talk on trade deal while investors count coronavirus cost
The Chinese stock market suffered a 7.7% fall when it reopened today after the extended lunar new year break, while Japan’s Nikkei fell by 1%.
However, in Europe and the US markets traded higher after steep losses last week, as traders took some comfort from measures taken by Chinese authorities to contain the deadly coronavirus (even as its death toll rose further), alongside the People’s Bank of China’s injection of liquidity into money markets.
Wilson has summarised the two positions.
The EU position is as follows:
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, has looked at the Barnier-Johnson clash, which caused sterling to sell off. The pound is now down 1.3% against the dollar and 0.96% lower against the euro, as Brussels and London set out their negotiating positions ahead of trade talks next month.
The way the two sides have come out, traders are starting to consider no-deal risks again. No deal is not the base case by any means but the EU and UK look in very different places right now at the start of talks. It’s going to be a very long and rocky road to get there and the shape of the deal will hinge on some important concessions on both sides. The British government has come out swinging over the weekend with plenty of fighting talk, but they’re up against a tough opponent.
There are several sticking points we can see right now, some of the most obvious ones are outlined but can be summed up as simply that the EU wants the UK to adhere to its rules and its courts, which the UK won’t do. So we are left at present at something of an impasse before the talks even begin. What we should remember is that, as in all negotiations, these views are the starting point, not the final destination.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones has opened more than 60 points higher at 28,319, a 0.23% gain – not quite as buoyant as hoped. The S&P 500 rose some 10 points, or 0.31%, to 3235 while the Nasdaq climbed almost 40 points, or 0.43%, to 9190.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s economy shrank by 1.2% last year, according to official figures, when months of pro-democracy protests and global trade wars pushed the city into its first annual recession since the height of the financial crisis in 2009.
GDP declined at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 2.8% fall. The coronavirus, which has infected at least 15 people in Hong Kong so far, will put further strain on the economy, after Hong Kong’s authorities imposed restrictions on movement between the city and mainland China.
On trade, the BBC has done a useful explainer of what a Canada-style free trade agreement is, as one of our readers points out.
The CBI, which represents the UK’s biggest businesses, has responded to Boris Johnson’s speech. CBI president John Allan said:
Business optimism is returning. The right signals about the UK’s future relationship with the EU will turn confidence into investment.
The prime minister’s clear, vocal commitment to global free trade and maintaining high standards through a thriving relationship with the EU will help.
A tale of two texts
Today is first working day after Brexit
EU publishes 33 pages of guidelines for next stage of Brexit: https://t.co/hxuCuA1KCE
Johnson makes a tub-tumping speech about free trade: https://t.co/4U59H1QFt0
In a year’s time, which text will be more relevant?
However, the death toll from the Wuhan coronavirus has passed that of the 2002-03 Sars virus in mainland China, reaching 361 today. The number of infections also jumped, passing 17,200.
On the markets, US stock index futures are pointing to a rebound when Wall Street opens in half an hour. On Friday, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 index recorded their worst weekly losses in at least five months as the deadly coronavirus spread.
Today, Chinese stocks fell 7.7% when Chinese stock markets reopened following the extended lunar new year holiday, as they caught up with stocks around the world.
You can watch Barnier’s speech here:
As a reminder, you can follow the latest on the Barnier-Johnson clash on our Brexit live blog.
The UK prime minister later said he would walk away from the talks if the EU did not agree to the UK’s demands. Triggering fresh fears of a no-deal Brexit, he said:
There is no need for a free trade agreement to involve accepting EU rules on competition policy, subsidies, social protection, the environment, or anything similar, any more than the EU should be obliged to accept UK rules.
. further evidence that next month’s trade talks between London and Brussels are not going to be easy.
Sterling is on the back foot today, sinking more than 1% against the dollar after Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator in the Brexit talks, set out their stalls. The pound is down 1.1% at $1.3054 and 0.84% lower against the euro, at €1.1799.
Turning back to trade, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has said that she would be prepared to back changes to the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, the bloc’s legal cornerstone, to strengthen the EU’s competitiveness.
She said during a joint press conference with the Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz in Berlin:
I could well imagine treaty changes should this be necessary.
We are required in view of Britain’s exit to strengthen our competitiveness and to act more quickly.
Britain’s manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilising last month to emerge from the longest downturn since the financial crisis, according to the latest PMI survey, as reported earlier. Here is our full story:
Just landed: Here’s the UK’s written statement on what it wants from a trade deal with the EU https://t.co/MF8f9c1PAY pic.twitter.com/Dw0Jh4010b
Opec is reportedly considering cutting oil output by around 500,000 barrels per day in order to boost the slump in crude prices, according to Reuters.
Demand for oil has fallen amid the coronavirus outbreak, causing prices for benchmark Brent crude to fall by around $10 to $56.47.
The technical panel is likely to make a recommendation on any further action to support the market, the sources said.
OPEC+ has been reducing oil supply to support prices, agreeing in December to cut output by 1.7 million bpd until the end of March. Its next meeting is scheduled for March 5-6.
At midday, sterling has fallen by as much as 1.1% against the US dollar, having briefly dropped below $1.305.
The FTSE 100 is up by 0.34% at about 7,310 points.
The EU has published its draft negotiating guidelines for the Brexit trade talks, setting out its stall ahead of discussions starting in earnest.
The latest update from Michel Barnier suggests the EU will be “very demanding” in setting level playing field conditions for any trade deal.
A quick update on UK stocks: there’s not much happening on the blue-chip or mid-cap indices.
The FTSE 100 has gained 0.4%, likely aided by sterling’s weakness. The highest riser is Auto Trader, up by 2.8%.
Phillip Inman, one of the The Guardian’s economic writers, who wrote about the likely impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese and global economies at the weekend, says some of the optimism among City analysts of a quick bounce back are beginning to evaporate.
Diana Choyleva, a respected China expert who leads the consultancy Enodo Economics, says 2020 is going to be a bad year for China, however much credit it pumps into the economy to keep businesses and consumers borrowing. She says:
The economic fallout from the Wuhan coronavirus, which is more contagious than SARS, is set to be severe. Importantly, investors hoping for a decisive growth rebound once the outbreak is contained are likely to be disappointed.
Beijing will have no choice but to throw money at investment. Even so, the authorities are unlikely to be able to re-energise the economy as they did post-SARS in 2003.
The pound is now down by 1% to $1.307 against the US dollar, with tough talk from both sides of the Channel.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has laid out some new red lines for a trade deal which appear to contradict Boris Johnson’s positions.
NEW: EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier says trade deal is dependent on 2 things (both of which Boris Johnson has ruled out):
1. Level playing field on standards (as expected)
2. It must include fisheries – continued access to UK waters
This will be the focus of negotiations.
Brexiteer politicians are moving from celebrating the exit to sounding bold as the trade talk verbal jousts begin. The foreign exchange market is likely to be nervous and with positioning data still suggesting an excessively long speculative position in the market, sterling is vulnerable.
The British manufacturing sector performed slightly better than initial figures suggested – the sector’s output was steady rather than the decline seen in early data.
The final reading of the UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 50.0 in December, compared to a flash figure of 49.8, according to IHS Markit. The 50 mark is the point where contraction turns to expansion.
The start of 2020 saw the performance of the UK manufacturing sector stabilise, as receding levels of political uncertainty following the general election aided mild recoveries in new order intakes, employment and business confidence.
Improvements were mostly seen via rising consumer demand and renewed input buying by businesses, suggesting that the reduction in uncertainty following the election has encouraged households and businesses to step up spending. In contrast, an ongoing downturn at investment goods producers suggests that the economic certainty required to achieve a full revival in capital spending may still be some way off, likely reflecting lingering uncertainty about the Brexit road-map in the coming year.
Speaking of Brexit, Nissan is worth a mention this morning after the Financial Times (£) reported that the Japanese carmaker had drawn up plans to “double down” on the UK in the event of tariffs on car exports following the end of the transition deal.
We deny such a contingency plan exists. We’ve modeled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs.
We want our UK team of more than 7,000 people to have the best possible chance of future success, which is why we continue to urge UK and EU negotiators to work collaboratively towards an orderly balanced Brexit that will continue to encourage mutually beneficial trade.
That sterling selloff is gaining momentum. The pound has now lost 0.7% against the US dollar and 0.5% against the euro.
The government’s majority may have allowed it to “get Brexit done” at the end of last week, but there appears to be little respite for anyone hoping the UK’s exit from the EU will not define 2020 as well.
Sterling has started the week on the back foot, down by 0.5% against the US dollar and 0.3% against the euro, with positioning around the Brexit trade deal thought to be one of the factors in play.
Britain won’t align; the EU demands it. The scene is set for a showdown and a rocky path for negotiations that introduces new headline risk for the pound – think back to last year and the way GBP pairs were moving around wildly on any report about deal or no deal.
Ryanair reported profit after tax of €88m euros (£74m) for the three months to the end of December, the third quarter of its financial year.
What is likely is they will push out that delivery profile with Boeing by at least 12 months. At best that means we will have to roll forward our plans to fly 200m passengers per year . by at least 12 months, possibly 24.
This is a strong set of results in a seasonally weak part of the year for Ryanair. The reduction in seat capacity across the sector as a result of the failure of a number of airlines should enable Ryanair to maintain strong pricing into the key summer months. The European airline industry faces a large challenge should the coronavirus spread to Europe, and Ryanair would not be immune to such a development.
In Europe, where traders have had some time to react to the coronavirus outbreak, shares have gained at the open.
The FTSE 100 is up by 0.27%, Germany’s Dax gained 0.3%, and France’s Cac 40 rose by 0.15%.
Chinese stock markets plunged on Monday in a delayed investor reaction to the coronavirus outbreak that has seen increasing numbers of confirmed cases.
Shares on the Shanghai stock exchange composite index fell by 7.7% to a one-year low, while the CSI 300 index, which tracks the biggest shares in both Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell by 7.9%. Japan’s Topix index fell by 0.7%.
While the severity of the onshore sell-off will dominate news headlines on Monday, the flat trade in offshore China equities (Hang Seng –0.1%) backs our thesis that today represents more of a catch-up. If anything, we think the magnitude of the sell-off appears less severe than market bear cases ahead of the open.
PBoC: China Stock Plunge Today Is Panic Triggered By Herd Effect
China’s authorities have demonstrated their determination to deal with the economic implications of the coronavirus by cutting the key reverse repo rates by 10 basis points [o.1 percentage points] as soon as markets have reopened after the New Year. The move may help sentiment but there is still no urgency to rebuild risk exposure as the virus continues to spread.
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Mon, 03 Feb 2020 14:57:07 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-chinese-stock-markets-sterling-brexit-pound-ftse-manufacturing-pmi-business-live Photograph: Frank Augstein/AP Photograph: Frank Augstein/AP Julia Kollewe Jasper Jolly and Kalyeena Makortoff 2020-02-03T14:57:07Z How has Brexit vote affected UK economy? January verdict
Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has had on growth, prosperity and trade
- Is uncertainty lifting? Experts debate the data
- UK economy close to turning point on eve of leaving EU
Continue reading. Economics Business Brexit Economic growth (GDP) International trade Sterling Stock markets FTSE Inflation Office for National Statistics Retail industry Services sector Bank of England Monetary policy committee Interest rates Housing market UK news
Thu, 30 Jan 2020 06:30:09 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/30/how-has-brexit-vote-affected-uk-economy-january-verdict Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Richard Partington Economics correspondent 2020-01-30T06:30:09Z UK economy close to turning point on eve of leaving EU
Confidence rising three and a half years after Brexit vote but tight timescale for trade deal could harm recovery
Britain’s economy is close to a turning point as the country prepares to formally leave the EU after almost half a century of membership, according to a Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.
More than three and a half years after voting to leave, the UK will formally depart on Friday with the economy close to stalling point following repeated cliff-edge deadlines and intense political uncertainty over the country’s future trading relationships with the EU and other countries.
Does 31 January change anything?
Continue reading. Brexit Economics UK news Economic growth (GDP) Business European Union Politics Europe Boris Johnson FTSE Stock markets Bank of England
Thu, 30 Jan 2020 06:30:09 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/30/brexit-uk-economy-close-to-turning-point-on-eve-of-leaving-eu Photograph: SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Photograph: SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Richard Partington Economics correspondent 2020-01-30T06:30:09Z US election, Brexit and China to sway the markets in 2020
Investors expect a strong year but the presidential race and trade wars could spring nasty surprises
After profiting from strong markets in 2020, investors are expecting 2020 to bring further rising asset prices and lively merger activity. But Brexit, the US presidential election and the US trade war with China could all spring nasty surprises over the next 12 months and give the long-running bull market a jolt.
Continue reading. Economic growth (GDP) International trade Economics Trade policy Global economy Mergers and acquisitions Business Brexit US foreign policy UK news US news European Union US markets Stock markets Bitcoin European Central Bank Federal Reserve
Wed, 01 Jan 2020 12:16:49 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/01/us-election-brexit-and-china-to-sway-the-markets-in-2020 Photograph: Frederic J Brown/AFP via Getty Images Photograph: Frederic J Brown/AFP via Getty Images Graeme Wearden 2020-01-01T12:16:49Z How has Brexit vote affected UK economy? December verdict
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Fri, 27 Dec 2020 07:00:33 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/27/how-has-brexit-vote-affected-uk-economy-december-verdict Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Richard Partington Economics correspondent 2020-12-27T07:00:33Z Shadow of Brexit still looms over economy: experts debate the data
Senior adviser to Cambridge Econometrics and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee 2006-11
I was particularly struck by the worst possible news at Christmas, that the price of chocolate went up
Continue reading. Economics Bank of England Business Monetary policy committee Economic growth (GDP) UK news Brexit International trade Global economy European Union Sterling Stock markets Inflation Europe Andrew Bailey WTO Germany David Blanchflower
Fri, 27 Dec 2020 07:00:33 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/27/shadow-of-brexit-still-looms-over-economy-experts-debate-the-data Photograph: Loop Images Ltd/Alamy Stock Photo Photograph: Loop Images Ltd/Alamy Stock Photo 2020-12-27T07:00:33Z UK GDP: economy stagnates as Brexit uncertainty hits growth – as it happened
UK economy failed to grow over the August-October period, reports the Office for National Statistics in its latest growth report
Time for a recap
Britain’s economy has been dragged back into stagnation by economic uncertainty.
Trade war news: The Wall Street Journal is reporting that US and Chinese negotiators are preparing for the next tranche of tariffs, due on 15 December, to be delayed.
That would allow both sides more breathing room to work on the Phase One trade deal that has apparently been nearly finished for weeks.
U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are laying the groundwork for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to kick in on Dec. 15, according to officials on both sides, as they continue to haggle over how to get Beijing to commit to massive purchases of U.S. farm products President Trump is insisting on for a near-term deal.
In recent days, officials in both Beijing and Washington have signaled that Sunday is not the final date for reaching a so-called phase-one deal—even though that is the date President Trump has set for tariffs to increase on $165 billion of Chinese goods. That date could be extended, as has happened several times when the two sides thought they were on the verge of a deal. Those prior deals, though, never held and tariffs continued to mount.
WSJ “U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are laying the groundwork for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to kick in on Dec. 15, according to officials on both sides, as they continue to haggle over how to get Beijing to commit to massive purchases of U.S. farm products ..” https://t.co/J4yzTidSTN
The economic picture looks a little brighter in Germany today.
The ZEW German Economic Sentiment index has hit a 21-month high, showing that investors in Europe’s largest economy are more upbeat.
The #ZEW outlook for #Germany surges to its highest level in nearly two years on hopes of improvements in exports and private consumption. $EUR
European Editor @EricCulpLS reviews today’s survey results here: https://t.co/ScIIfKf8Tw pic.twitter.com/uPPXzuh8rP
German ZEW expectations jumped in December, but the index is not very good at predicting actual GDP-growth. Current conditions index is much better at that; there was an improvement in December, but less pronounced #macrobond pic.twitter.com/cAeoYnE1R0
Paul Dales of Capital Economics fears the UK economy is going nowhere in the current quarter, given today’s weak GDP report.
He told clients:
The 0.2% m/m rise in services output shows that the largest part of the economy hasn’t got much momentum and the 0.2% m/m gain in manufacturing output may not be repeated given the weak global backdrop.
What’s more, this is despite the first real evidence that stockbuilding ahead of the old 31 st October Brexit deadline may have provided some support to the economy. Indeed, most of the sharp leap in the international trade deficit, from £1.9bn in September to £5.2bn in October <see here>, was due to businesses buying more components from overseas as imports rose by a strong 6.2% m/m
The weak growth figures haven’t caused much of a kerfuffle in the City.
The pound has hit a new seven-month high against the US dollar today, touching $1.3189, as investors continue to price in a Conservative election victory.
Weak consumer confidence means Christmas puddings and tins of biscuits are languishing on UK shop shelves.
Here’s my colleague Phillip Inman on the UK’s stagnating economy:
Britain’s economy stalled in the three months to October following steep falls in the manufacturing and construction industries, according to the last official economic data before voters head to the polls on Thursday.
The Office for National Statistics said its monthly assessment found that a broad swathe of the UK’s industrial sectors struggled in the autumn months to leave GDP growth at zero.
The slowdown in the UK economy isn’t deterring Wetherspoons from expanding.
“We are especially pleased that a large proportion of the investment will be in smaller towns and cities which have seen a decline in investment in recent years.
Geoff Tily of the TUC says today’s GDP report shows “the economy is in trouble. after a decade of Tory cuts”.
The news that the economy has ground to a halt, comes on top of earlier information showing annual GDP growth at a ten-year low and the UK languishing at the very bottom of the rich country league table.
That’s the legacy of a decade of Conservative cuts and mismanagement.
Here’s some political reaction to the GDP figures, from Liberal Democrat Chuka Umunna:
BREAKING: Official economic stats just out..
⚠️ No growth in GDP for three months to October
⚠️ Production down
⚠️ Manufacturing down
⚠️ Construction down
⚠️ Trade deficit up
▶️ All under the Tories’ watch – and before they take us out on “no deal” terms if they win.#StopBrexit https://t.co/bnMCXYzziz
Britain’s trade in goods deficit has widened too — as imports continue to grow faster than exports.
The goods deficit with the EU has widened by £3.5bn to £25.0bn in the last three months, while with non-EU countries it widened £3.3bn to £10.6bn.
Imports from non-EU countries rose by £5.3 billion to £61.0 billion in the three months to October 2020. This was largely driven by a £3.9 billion increase in unspecified goods (which includes non-monetary gold), and a £1.1 billion increase in machinery and transport equipment.
Imports from EU countries rose by £4.7 billion to £68.2 billion in the three months to October 2020. This was largely driven by machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals, which increased by £2.2 billion and £1.3 billion respectively.
Jack Leslie, Economic Analyst at the Resolution Foundation, says the next government must do more to boost growth:
“Crucially the UK’s domestic challenges come against a weak global economic outlook for next year.
While the main parties have avoided any discussion of this challenging economic environment during the election campaign, navigating it will be a central task for the next government nonetheless.”
While monthly GDP data can be volatile, the big picture is that the UK economy is growing at its weakest pace since the aftermath of the last recession.
Latest @ONS data on UK GDP were released this morning. The figures show that GDP growth has continued to slow. The economy only grew by 0.8 per cent over the past year – the slowest rate in almost eight years. pic.twitter.com/eTtGINAkb6
Here are the key points:
Today’s GDP report is the first since Britain officially avoided recession, by posting growth in the third quarter of 2020.
Debapratim De, UK economist at Deloitte, says Brexit worries are holding the economy back:
“Today’s data suggest that the UK economy is struggling to gain momentum after avoiding a recession in the third quarter.
The sharp contraction in construction activity is a reminder that the global slowdown and Brexit uncertainties continue to blight UK growth.”
Britain’s builders have suffered a mensis horribilis.
Construction output slumped by 2.3% in October alone, a serious slide, which took output down to its lowest level since January 2020. That’s partly due to drop in housebuilding and home repairs.
Rolling three-month growth in construction was negative 0.3% in the three months to October 2020. This fall was driven by private housing repair and maintenance, and private new housing, which fell by 3.6% and 1.0%, respectively.
The month-on-month growth in October was negative 2.3%. This decrease was driven by private new housing and infrastructure, which fell by 4.7% and 4.3%, respectively. The fall in infrastructure is as a result of several large businesses changing the timing of some of their regular activity from July to October.
John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, says Britain’s economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty – and the slowdown in the world economy.
“GDP was flat in both October alone and the three months to October, confirming a loss of momentum in the economy since the summer due to Brexit-related uncertainty and slower global growth.
The sectoral breakdown showed a familiar pattern, with services growth modestly positive in the three months to October but manufacturing output declining. Construction output also registered a particularly sharp drop in October as both infrastructure projects and housebuilding fell back.
NIESR, the economic think tank, says the UK economy is now suffering from falling investment — which has been under pressure since the Brexit vote.
The latest data confirm that economic growth in the UK is petering out at the end of the year. GDP was flat in the 3months to October. The economy is being held back by weak #productivity growth and low #investment due to chronic levels of #uncertainty – More at 12.30pm https://t.co/0jQQwbn6YI
This chart from Economist Rupert Seggins shows how Britain’s manufacturing, construction and ‘admin and services’ all contracted in the last three months:
UK GDP change of 0% q/q in the 3 months to October as per consensus expectation. Main boosts came from health, professional services, real estate, info & comms and wholesale & retail. Main drags from manufacturing, construction, accommodation & food and admin services. pic.twitter.com/zmcgo2qDIJ
Last reading on UK economic growth before the election, and it’s not very encouraging. UK gross domestic product was flat in three months to October. Weak performance from manufacturing and construction sectors. Full numbers here: https://t.co/msy3Vu1d9z pic.twitter.com/raMoeCN7yf
Away from the hubbub, economy stagnates in 3 months to Oct, with service sector (esp. comms, IT, health, education) keeping overall activity from sagging as manufacturing, construction output shrinks
Fall in manufacturing output driven by fall in pharma, electrical equipment production – slackening after stockpiling of recent months?
Whatever the Brexit-deadline-related distortion, industry v much under pressure; output still over 6% down on pre-crisis peak
Today’s GDP report shows the UK economy failed to grow in August, September or October.
The government once boasted about creating a March of the Makers.
Today’s GDP report paints a different picture: output at UK manufacturers has been falling pretty steadily since the spring, as the boost from Brexit stockpiling has faded.
Growth across Britain’s services sector, which makes up around three-quarters of the economy, has also stumbled.
Growth in the services sector slowed in the three months to October 2020 to 0.2%, following growth of 0.4% in the three months to September 2020.
This growth was driven by strength in professional, scientific and technical activities, wholesale trade and health, and was partially offset by weakness in office administrative and support activities.
Britain’s factories and builders have both suffered falling growth in the last quarter, today’s report shows.
An ONS spokesperson said:
“The UK economy saw no growth in the latest three months. There were increases across the services sector, offset by falls in manufacturing with factories continuing the weak performance seen since April.
Construction also declined across the last three months with a notable drop in house building and infrastructure in October.”
UK GDP Estimate (M/M) Oct: 0.0% (est 0.1% ; prev -0.1%)
UK GDP Estimate (3M/3M) Oct: 0.0% (est 0.0% ; prev 0.3%)
UK GDP Estimate (Y/Y) Oct: 0.7% (est 0.7% ; prev 0.9%)
BREAKING: The UK economy has stagnated in October, and also over the last quarter.
That’s according to the latest monthly growth report from the Office for National Statistics. It shows that GDP was unchanged during October itself, and also in August-October compared to the previous three months.
It’s nearly time for UK GDP.
UK GDP for the 3 months to October up next. Consensus is for 0%q/q. Likely to be lots of talk of uncertainty. News mentions of economic policy uncertainty tend to spike around election time (unsurprisingly). pic.twitter.com/YGsoBUzbby
Oof! Shares in fashion retailer Ted Baker are being hammered, down 35% at one stage this morning.
The City is alarmed by this morning sudden departure of both CEO Lindsay Page (a company veteran) and chairman David Bernstein. The news that pre-tax profits might dwindle to just £5m, from £50m last year, is another hefty blow.
Well, after yet another profit warning, it will cost a lot less to buy Ted Baker now and take it private, but Ray Kelvin could be forgiven for having second thoughts, given the mess the business is in.
The London stock market has started the day on the wrong foot, as investors await October’s UK GDP report.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 index has shed 65 points, or 0.85%, in early trading to 7,173 – back towards last week’s two-month lows.
With the UK’s future as murky as the clouds blanketing the country, people appear to be delaying their Christmas preparations.
“Amid the uncertainty of a (Dec. 12) general election, a lacklustre Black Friday and a wet autumn, shoppers have been delaying their Christmas preparations and are waiting to stock up on festive supplies.”
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Today we get the final healthcheck on the UK economy before Thursday’s election, and it may not cheer the spirits.
“Trading over November and the Black Friday period was below expectations, with lower than anticipated margins and sell through.
Wow. Struggling Ted Baker throws the kitchen sink at recovery: CEO is out after 22 years with company, chairman on his way too, divi suspended, profit warning. And there’s still the internal fallout of #Huggate too.
Continue reading. Business Stock markets Economic growth (GDP) Economics Sterling UK news
Tue, 10 Dec 2020 17:08:57 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/dec/10/uk-gdp-uncertainty-brexit-growth-stock-markets-pound-ftse-business-live Photograph: Mark Waugh/Alamy Stock Photo Photograph: Mark Waugh/Alamy Stock Photo Graeme Wearden 2020-12-10T17:08:57Z How has Brexit vote affected UK economy? November verdict
Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has had on growth, prosperity and trade
- Are economic doldrums likely to continue? Experts debate the data
- Brexit uncertainty makes impact on October pay growth
Continue reading. Economics Business Sterling Inflation UK unemployment and employment statistics Currencies Stock markets Economic growth (GDP) Brexit Politics UK news Interest rates International trade Eurozone House prices Property Money Global economy
Thu, 28 Nov 2020 06:00:30 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/28/how-has-brexit-vote-affected-uk-economy-november-verdict Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Phillip Inman 2020-11-28T06:00:30Z UK GDP: Economy avoids recession despite weakest growth in a decade – as it happened
Britain’s economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter, after shrinking in Q2, but annual growth slowed to just 1%
Finally, the FTSE 100 index of top UK shares has closed 30 points lower at 7,328.
Multinationals and major exporters were hit by the strengthening pound, although banks and house builders held onto their gains.
Construction was one of the bright spots in the UK economy in the last quarter, growing by 0.6%.
But economic uncertainty threatens to pull the sector back again.
“These latest figures reflect the uncertainty the sector is currently experiencing.
They show an increase in new work over July to September, and in particular higher than expected increases in housing, commercial and industrial new work, but a slowdown in September itself.
Business owners from construction, manufacturing and TV have told us how they’re coping through the slowdown:
Shares in UK banks and housebuilders are rallying in London, as fears of a hung parliament recede a little.
Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group have both gained over 4%, as have building firms Persimmon and Barratt Development.
“All eyes must now be on the Liberal Democrats. Will Farage’s move incite a mirror image reaction from the Liberal Democrats, potentially stepping aside in order to increase Labour’s chances and “take the fight” back to the Conservatives? As we approach the December 12 elections, investors should anticipate conflicting headlines, with currency moves perhaps disproportionate to the overall impact.
Sterling is now at the whim of headline risk which, as Christmas approaches, waning market liquidity will exacerbate.”
Back on GDP. Chris Giles of the Financial Times has done some impressive number crunching, to prove a couple of important points.
1) The growth rate of the UK economy has been slowing, slowly but steadily, over the last seventy years.
⚠️ SOME ECONOMIC CONTEXT ⚠️
UK economic growth rates are historically low at the moment
Decline has been reasonably consistent since WWII
(which means you need to be careful with time comparisons)
ADDENDUM – Some have asked for a reference for other countries
– This is not altogether easy (here is a proxy such as the average of the US and France to reflect other G7 countries)
– shows UK underperformance until *coughs* UK joins the EU.
– Then better, now worse pic.twitter.com/F2N6AHaZm3
Over in New York, stocks have opened lower.
The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 139 points, or 0.5%, to 27,541. Trade war jitters are pulling Wall Street away from last Friday’s record closing high.
Jingye has issued a statement, saying it plans to invest £1.2bn in British Steel over the next decade.
It also promised to make job offers to “as many employees as possible” across the group.
Newsflash: British Steel has been saved from closure, after a Chinese industrial giant agreed to buy the company’s assets.
The Official Receiver and Special Managers from EY can confirm that a sales contract has been entered into with Jingye Steel (UK) Ltd and Jingye Steel (UK) Holding Ltd (together, Jingye), to acquire the business and assets of British Steel Limited (BSL), including the steelworks at Scunthorpe, UK mills and shares of FN Steel BV, British Steel France Rail SAS and TSP Engineering.
The sale also includes the shares owned by BSL in Redcar Bulk Terminal Limited.
Britain’s growth was even slower once you adjust for population increases.
This chart shows how growth on a per capita basis has been weak in recent quarter (data here).
The big question today is not whether GDP has grown over the passed few months.
The real question is why, after adjusting for the actual costs faced by families, gross incomes per person are still lower today than they were in 2008.
Sajid Javid is correct when he says that Britain is expected to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany in 2020 and 2020.
But that’s hardly impressive. Italy has been stagnating for years, Germany will probably tumble into recession on Thursday, and Japan’s export-driven economy has been hurt by the US-China trade war.
UK chancellor Sajid Javid has insisted that the UK economy is in good shape, despite annual growth slowing to a nine-year low.
Over the last nine years since the Conservatives have been back in office we’ve seen nine consecutive years of growth.
These are all good signs of the fundamental strength of the economy.
We are doing better than many of our competitors.
Here at home there are factors at play, and the number one issue is around uncertainty, around Brexit.
Here’s my colleague Phillip Inman on today’s growth figures:
The British economy has avoided recession after officials figures showed it grew 0.3% in the third quarter of the year.
The GDP data for July to September from the Office for National Statistics showed the UK returned to growth after a dip of 0.2% between April and June. A technical recession is defined by two successive quarters of negative growth.
The pound is stronger since a clear, decisive election win for the Conservatives will provide clarity on Brexit – anything else becomes messy.
This is a big boost to the Conservative Party as the Brexit Party had talked about fielding 600 candidates. It changes the electoral map. Mr Farage seems to have been persuaded by Boris Johnson’s commitment not to extend the transition period beyond December 2020. Mr Farage and everyone else knew it would have been crazy politics for the Brexit Party to take Leave votes away from the Tories and enable a pro-Remain grouping to take seats.
Back in the City, the pound has just jumped to a one-week high.
Sterling had already been lifted by the news that Britain had avoided recession.
Worryingly, business investment has fizzled out in the last couple of year.s
The ONS reports that it was flat in the last quarter alone, but has shrunk in five of the last eight quarters:
Britain’s economy is now paying the price of years of austerity, argues TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady:
“A decade of cuts and under-investment has slammed the handbrake on economic growth.
“When Britain needed rebuilding after the crash the Conservatives opted for austerity and tax breaks for big business.
GDP growth, third quarter (%)
The UK economy is only going one way.
And when that happens, it’s working people who pay the price.
Britain’s economy benefited from a boom in UK-based film and TV production in the last quarter, the ONS says.
That helped the wider information and communication industry to grow by 0.8% in the last quarter, nearly three times faster than the wider economy.
Two bright areas of today’s GDP numbers – computing and creative industries (telly, music and film). Yet how much Labour/Tory infrastructure spending will go into these economy building sectors? Nowt.
Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg has crunched today’s GDP data, to show that UK growth has fallen steadily since the EU referendum
Intensifying Brexit uncertainties over the last three years have gradually eroded the UK’s underlying growth momentum. After averaging 0.6% in 2020, the average quarterly pace of growth has slowed each year since then. Down from 0.38% in 2020, the quarterly pace has slowed to 0.22% for the first three quarters of 2020 – barely half of the UK’s potential rate (c0.4%).
The slowdown highlights the pains of political uncertainties linked to Brexit and the upcoming general election on 12 December.
Today’s GDP report shows that private consumption, government spending and net trade all made a positive contribution to growth.
But ‘gross fixed capital formation’ (a broad measure of investment) contracted in Q3, and manufacturing has also shrunk over the last six months.
Latest GDP figures show UK economy has almost ground to a halt. GDP up just 0.1 pc over the past 2 quarters. UK economy becoming even more unbalanced – consumer spending, gov’t expenditure & services output are growing while manufacturing industry and investment are in decline.
John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, isn’t impressed that the UK economy has barely grown over the last six months:
“Over the last year, growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost a decade.
“The fact that the Government will be celebrating 0.1% growth in the last six months is a sign of how low their hopes and expectations for our economy are.
This chart shows how Britain’s annual growth rate has slumped to a nine-year low (the blue line) despite growth picking up in the last quarter (the red bars).
Economist Simon French of City firm Pantheon is also concerned that growth fell in August and September, after a punchy July (+0.3%).
Good news that UK #GDP grew again in Q3 (+0.3% QoQ; +1.0% YoY). A word of caution: after the July surge in output, August and September were weaker. As such Q4 growth is set to remain modest as further political uncertainty chills forward-looking spending decisions /1 pic.twitter.com/y7Cxw0ghQk
So the UK has skirted a technical recession q3 0.3% vs -0.2% in q2. Slowest YoY growth in 9 years tho
Investment and Manufacturing continue to drag $GBP
Avoiding recession is obviously welcome news.
But the broader picture is that the UK economy is struggling along. With growth at a nine-year low, few experts are celebrating.
The UK economy has been in stop-start mode all year, with growth punctuated by the various Brexit deadlines. Indeed, the pick-up in the third quarter numbers may slightly exaggerate the strength in the economy, with some activity likely to have been brought forward before October 31st. The final quarter of 2020 could be weaker as stockpiles continue to be run down.
“While high employment has provided some support for the economy, underlying weaknesses in investment and productivity still need addressing. With uncertainty likely to persist and a continued slowdown in global markets, the onus is on the new government to stimulate economic activity and move the UK beyond its current yo-yo pattern of growth.”
Household spending remains the main motor of growth, with a 0.4% rise in the third quarter bolstered by stronger earnings growth.
By contrast, business investment was flat, reflecting the continued drag from Brexit-related uncertainty, which looks set to continue into the fourth quarter.”
The stronger headline figure masks an alarming loss of momentum through the quarter from a relatively strong July outturn and therefore does little to suggest any meaningful improvement in UK’s underlying growth trajectory.
Despite the pick-up in growth, a slowing global economy has weakened firms’ cashflow, disrupted supply chains and stifled investment and is likely to squeeze economic activity in the fourth quarter and beyond, unless action is taken.
Alarmingly, most sectors of UK manufacturing have contracted over the last six months.
As the chart shows, car production slumped in the second quarter because auto plants brought their annual shutdowns forward to April, in case of a hard Brexit. That meant the production bounced back in the summer.
Manufacturing failed to grow in Quarter 3 2020, with falls in many industries almost solely offset by an increase in the manufacturing output of transport equipment.
This recovery in car production follows a decline in Quarter 2, because of partial closures of various car manufacturing plants.
The Office for National Statistics has tweeted the key points from today’s GDP report, including the fact that annual growth has hit a near-decade low:
Commenting on today’s GDP figures for Q3, an ONS spokesperson said: https://t.co/eDWp8tPUB7 pic.twitter.com/gWDlyl9ab3
On an annual growth basis, the UK economy is dragging its feet behind the US and France – but ahead of Italy:
UK GDP up 1%y/y in Q3 2020. Not many OECD countries have reported, but UK %y/y growth currently 3rd out of the four G7 nations that have (US 2%y/y, France 1.3%y/y & Italy 0.3%y/y). pic.twitter.com/FnVp5Nd1Mi
Britain’s service sector provided the bulk of the growth in the last quarter, growing by 0.4% in July-September.
The construction sector grew by 0.6%, as building activity picked up.
Production was flat in the three months to September 2020; this sector has not seen positive rolling three-month growth since April 2020. Manufacturing, the largest sub-sector of production, was also flat in the three months to September 2020.
Although the UK has avoided recession, the economy is still looking weak.
On an annual basis, UK GDP only rose by 1.0% in July-September compared with Q3 2020.
The economy did shrink in September, by 0.1%.
But strong growth in July means the economy expanded in the third quarter of the year.
NEWSFLASH: Britain has avoided recession.
The UK economy expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics says.
Not long to wait.
Stand By Your Desks! UK Q3 GDP is up next and the Bank of England thinks it will be 0.4% so fingers crossed!
UK chancellor Sajid Javid will be quizzed about the state of the economy by the BBC’s Faisal Islam:
Heading to interview Chancellor after GDP figure release.
Expectation is that in Q3 (July-Sep) economy grew by about 0.4, therefore avoiding technical recession after -0.2 in Q2. But overall picture so far in 2020 sluggish. due to global trade/ Brexit/ low investment.
If negative (unlikely given monthly data) that’s a recession.
0.5 or under (assuming no revision to q2) would still be slowest two quarters since financial crisis 2009
Data has been bouncing around q a bit because of two rounds of ultimately unnecessary no deal stockpiling.
UK data due at the bottom of the hour the only real economic releases of the day of note. 1st look at Q3 GDP +0.4% exp vs -0.2% prior. Industrial and manufacturing production could give a better read on current state of activity. GBP little changed despite Moody’s donwgrade
Bakery chain Greggs isn’t weighed down by recession worries.
The UK was actually the worst-performing EU economy in the second quarter of 2020.
A 0.2% contraction put it at the bottom of the growth league, behind Germany and Sweden (which shrank by 0.1%).
In the City, the FTSE 100 index of top blue-chip shares has dropped by 0.5% in early trading.
It’s down 37 points at 7322, a one-week low.
Breaking: Credit ratings agency Moody’s changes outlook on UK’s (Aa2) rating from stable to negative. Pretty damning release says Brexit has been a catalyst in an “erosion in institutional strength” which is now seriously undermining faith in the UK. More here: pic.twitter.com/j55TRhwVjp
Bloomberg also reckons the UK’s economy has lost momentum due to the ongoing Brexit crisis, saying:
The U.K. almost certainly avoided a recession ahead of the now-postponed October 31 deadline to leave the European Union. The economy expanded 0.4% between July and September, thereby avoiding a second straight quarter of contraction, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
Brexit stockpiling has led to volatility in output this year but the underlying picture is one of an economy that has lost momentum amid the turmoil convulsing British politics.
Several economists believe that Britain’s service sector drove the economy back into growth.
Here’s Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce:
#UK #GDP data out today at 9:30am likely to show that the UK avoided recession with the latest @britishchambers QES indicating GDP growth of around 0.3% in Q3 2020 (driven mainly by the services sector). pic.twitter.com/C1GGBvk36o
The rebound is largely expected to have been driven by the services sector, which makes up almost 80% of the UK economy and tends to do all the heavy lifting in most cases.
The services sector is expected to contribute 0.4% of growth in Q3, with private consumption also contributing to a healthy rebound.
Even if GDP fell 0.1% month-on-month in September, third-quarter GDP quarterly growth will have been 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. Reasonable consumer spending growth, healthy tourism and positive contributions from government spending and investment were probably behind the economy’s growth in the third quarter.
It also looks likely there was some, albeit limited stockbuilding in September ahead of the scheduled 31 October Brexit due date.
The Daily Express has taken something of a flyer on this morning’s GDP figures.
Their front page says there is a “Boris Boost as Economy Bounces Back”, even though we don’t actually have the growth data yet.
BORIS JOHNSON’S election hopes have been majorly boosted as the latest financial data will show the UK economy growing once again after a previous quarter of contraction.
0.4 is what most people expect.
Only shows “economy firing on all cylinders” if the UK is happy to be downgraded to a Reliant Robin
Politicians happy with this number will be disappointed by the lack of tax revenues it would bring over the next 5 years pic.twitter.com/C9cAWwa0N7
Good morning. We’re about to learn whether the UK has plunged into its first recession since the financial crisis.
Continue reading. Business UK news Economics Economic growth (GDP) Stock markets
Mon, 11 Nov 2020 16:36:26 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/nov/11/uk-gdp-economy-growth-recession-brexit-pound-services-manufacturing-business-live Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian Graeme Wearden 2020-11-11T16:36:26Z How has Brexit vote affected the UK economy? October verdict
Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has had on growth, prosperity and trade
- Brexit uncertainty drives up job losses
- Experts debate the data
Continue reading. Economics Brexit Business UK news Stock markets Inflation Economic growth (GDP) Sterling Currencies International trade UK unemployment and employment statistics Office for National Statistics Services sector Manufacturing sector Construction industry House prices Boris Johnson FTSE
Fri, 25 Oct 2020 06:00:21 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/25/how-has-brexit-vote-affected-uk-economy-october-verdict Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Photograph: cath levett/The Guardian Richard Partington Economics correspondent 2020-10-25T06:00:21Z UK economy to avoid 2020 recession; Trump tweet lifts markets – as it happened
The latest UK GDP report shows that the economy will probably avoid sliding into recession this autumn
Finally, the Dow Jones industrial average closed a neat 150 points higher tonight, following the news that Donald Trump would meet with China’s trade envoy on Friday.
And the president is getting the market pumped again in after hours trading, saying the talks with China’s delegation in Washington went “very well”.
President Trump: China Talks Went Very Well Today, Will Continue Tomorrow
Futures pop higher:#DOW 26592 +0.32%#SPX 2948 +0.29%#NASDAQ 7769 +0.32%#USDJPY 107.93 +0.42%#AUDJPY 72.9920 1%#USDCNH 7.1052 -0.47% https://t.co/mNrv8sWFTb
America’s Information Technology Industry Council (ITI), which represents the tech sector, has called on president Trump to end the trade war by dropping tariffs on Chinese goods.
TI President and CEO Jason Oxman issued this statement:
On Friday, President Trump has another opportunity to end this unnecessary and costly trade war with China when he meets with Vice Premier Liu He. ITI and our members support a trade agreement that puts an end to China’s unfair trade policies and costly tariffs that are hurting American consumers, already struggling with growing economic disparities and stifling business large and small.
As this trade war has raged on for over a year, we believe there are tools to address China’s unfair behavior without tariffs and we strongly encourage the U.S. and China to address these long-standing issues. Failure to come to an agreement will be costly to the global economy and detrimental to the future of emerging innovation within the tech industry.”
Wall Street is holding onto its earlier gains, as traders cling onto hopes of progress at the trade talks in Washington.
– Dow up 116.49
– Nasdaq up 32.38
– S&P up 14.99
Trade war optimism had also pushed the Dow Jones industrial average up by 214 points right now.
That’s a gain of 0.8%, to 26,560 points, at noon New York time.
Britain’s FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed 19 points higher at 7,186, up 0.3%.
Optimism over the trade talks lifted shares, although the strengthening pound held back multinational with large overseas earnings.
Traders are a little more hopeful about the US-China trade talks after President Trump tweeted he will meet Liu He, China’s Vice Premier, tomorrow. In a continuation of the back and forth on the trade front, Mr Trump tweeted China ‘wants to make a deal, but do I?’. The fact Mr Trump will meet with Liu He sends a positive message, which is why we have seen an uptick in sentiment. The gulf between the two sides is wide, but a willingness to sit down and negotiate has injected some hope in the markets.
Donald Trump’s trade tweet came as two Republican donors with links to the president’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani were reportedly arrested on campaign-finance charges.
Our US Politics Live blog is tracking all the action.
Meanwhile, Trump announced over Twitter that he would meet tomorrow with the Chinese vice premier to engage in trade talks.
The vice premier, Liu He, is leading China’s negotiating team as the two countries attempt to wind down the tit-for-tat sanctions that have escalated in recent months.
Never underestimate the power of a Donald Trump tweet.
All the main US stock indices, and nearly every European market, are solidly higher since the president tweeted that he’ll meet Chinese vice-premier Liu He tomorrow.
Despite a gloomy start to the week, there have been enough titbits in the last couple of days to keep hopes of trade progress alive. First there was Wednesday’s claim from a Chinese official that Beijing is open to a ‘partial trade deal’ in order to limit the negative impact to the country’s economy.
And then, this Thursday, Donald Trump tweeted that he would be meeting with Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday – a step up from Washington’s usual high level negotiating team of Robert Lighthizer and Stephen Mnuchin, and perhaps a sign that something more substantial could come out of the talks.
Sterling is pushing higher, after Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar issued a joint statement they can see a pathway to a possible Brexit deal.
The leaders of the UK and the Republic of Ireland have spent several hours talking today, at a manor house in Merseyside.
Here’s our joint statement following my meeting with @BorisJohnson in Cheshire this afternoon pic.twitter.com/RxjF9qFte8
Sterling roofing as UK and Irish PM say there is a pathway to a possible deal#GBP +0.24% against other currencies#GBPUSD 1.23865 +0.43%#EURGBP 0.89513 -0.21%#GBPAUD 1.80302 +0.38%#GBPJPY 133.805 +0.34%#GBPCAD 1.6385 +0.57%#GBPCHF 1.22394 +0.19%
Here’s my colleague Richard Partington on today’s GDP report:
Britain looks on track to avoid a recession despite mounting Brexit uncertainty after official figures showed an unexpectedly strong jump in economic growth over the summer.
The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) had risen by 0.3% in the three months to August, beating the forecasts of City economists, helped by the strength of the services sector and a boom in TV and film production across the country.
The news that Donald Trump and Liu He will (apparently) meet at the White House tomorrow is pushing shares higher.
Investors see it as a positive development, which could lead to at least a ‘partial trade deal’ (one that leaves trickier issues unresolved).
US futures flying on these comments (again):#DOW 26480 +0.52%#SPX 2934 +0.54%#NASDAQ 7734 +0.60%#RUSSELL 1491 +0.84%#FANG 2569 +1.07% https://t.co/LogY0ebRWb
Donald Trump has just tweeted that he’ll meet Liu He on Friday at the White House.
That could be an encouraging sign, suggesting that the Chinese delegation won’t be leaving early (as sources had hinted earlier this week).
Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House.
The New York stock exchange has opened very cautiously, as investors await developments from the US-China trade talks.
The Dow Jones industrial average has gained just 3 points, or 0.012%, to 26,349. The S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq index are equally subdued.
If we don’t see a complete collapse in trade talks, the bullish case for US stocks remains in place as the US economy is still likely to see modest growth and the Fed is unlikely to raise rates over the next couple of years as inflation will probably not rise above their target over the next year.
Over in Washington, Chinese and US officials are sitting down for a new round of negotiations over the trade war.
China’s vice-premier Liu He has been just greeted by US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and treasury secretary Stephen Mnuchin.
USTR Lighthizer, Liu He, and Secretary Mnuchin smile for cameras as trade talks kick off. pic.twitter.com/fSBFpc09QC
U.S. China trade talks about to start Treasury Secretary Mnuchin just arrive – he’s looking forward to the talks pic.twitter.com/kVWTNTOI8h
Just in: US inflation was weaker than expected last month, potentially bolstering the case for an interest rate cut next month.
American consumer prices were unchanged month-on-month in September, below the 0.1% expected. On an annual basis, prices rose by 1.7%, below the 1.8% expected.
#US core #CPI down to +0.1 MoM in Sep from previous +0.3% and less than exp +0.2%; CPI 0.0%, less than exp +0.1%, hinting a more dovish stance by the #FederalReserve
Initial Jobless Claims to 210K, less than expected 215K#EURUSD rises to [email protected] pic.twitter.com/SapF6tecQk
Brexit uncertainty may not prevent a bidding war for perhaps the most famous hotel in the world – The Ritz.
”A hotel of this size and prominence being for sale will not only attract significant attention in the UK but also worldwide. You would expect a pool of 10 or so ultra-high net worth individuals entering a bidding process. Whether £800m is a true reflection of the asset’s value will be a potential hurdle to the sale and achieving that sale price – each bidder will carry out a rigorous financial due diligence process.
However, given it will be classed as a ‘trophy asset’, buyers might not be put off by a financial performance that doesn’t reflect the sale price. Whether it’s an inflated price or not, this should not be seen as an indication of the buoyant hotel market in the UK in a wider context, primarily because the Ritz is almost a “one-off””
Reasonable @NIESRorg forecast shows UK economy pottering on at a sluggish underlying growth rate of roughly 0.3% a quarter
Just as Q1 was artificially high, Q2 artificially low, Q3 looks likely to be artificially high too pic.twitter.com/9Q1sgFCY1Q
Newsflash: The European boss of Japanese carmaker Nissan has warned that a no-deal Brexit would threaten the future of its entire EU operations.
Speaking at Nissan’s car plant in Sunderland, Gianluca de Ficchy said that moving to WTO tariffs would be “unsustainable” for the company, as it would make its vehicles uncompetitive.
NEW: Nissan Europe chairman Gianluca de Ficchy has said a no-deal Brexit would put its entire business model in Europe “in jeopardy” and that it “won’t be sustainable”.
Asked about the future of Nissan’s Sunderland plant – the biggest car plant in the U.K – De Ficchy said the firm wouldn’t rush to decisions but would also need to act swiftly if WTO tariffs were imposed overnight.
De Ficchy said the firm was well prepared operationally for “a crisis situation” but that “the first thing we need to have is clarity,” adding: “My message is that today as a business we do not have a clear understanding on the future evolution of the Brexit discussion.”
The NIESR thinktank has crunched today’s GDP data, and concluded that Britain will indeed avoid a recession this year.
They expect the UK post growth of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2020. That would reverse the 0.2% slump recorded in April-June, avoiding two consecutive quarters of contraction (a technical recession).
“Despite better than expected GDP data, the underlying pace of growth in the United Kingdom is slow. The strongest source of private sector demand is household consumption, driven by real wage growth, but this is not sustainable without a pick-up in productivity growth, and this seems unlikely in the near term.”
My colleague Sean Farrell is at the unveiling of the Turner £20 note — and reports that Mark Carney fielded questions on the UK economy, the outlook for inflation and interest rates, and his own future.
“The data is fairly volatile at the moment influenced by a number of Brexit related effects.
“If you cast your mind back to our August report we expected 0.2% for Q3. We have one month to go. The underlying pace of growth is a bit softer than that.”
“That is a question for the government. As the chancellor indicated in the past few days … they felt they would be on track. We will await the decision of the government at the appropriate time.
The government is focused on a couple of big issues. There is no reason that question would necessarily be asked … There is no need to speculate. There is plenty of time.”
“As you know, inflation has just come down below 2% and the currency remains more volatile than usual because of the relatively wide range of Brexit outcomes that could transpire. The MPC will manage policy to balance the need to bring inflation back to target either from below or above by supporting this economy.
In more dramatic Brexit outcomes we will do whatever we can to support growth but I would remind in that regard that much of the flexibility that the bank has is the responsibility of other committees within the Bank, [especially] the FPC.”
Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, says today’s GDP report is consistent with a picture of “soft underlying growth”.
Carney also warned that the pound is more volatile than usual due to Brexit uncertainty, adding that the Bank will do whatever it can to support growth if there is a disorderly Brexit.
0.1% contraction in UK GDP in August according to @ONS – but 3 month rolling growth rate picks up to 0.3%
Analysts predicting that Q3 (July-Sep) will be positive, meaning UK would avoid recession after 0.2% Q2 fallhttps://t.co/lPBsg5ihra pic.twitter.com/k56smlqDZ2
Brexit uncertainty and the US-China trade war are both hurting British industry.
Fhaheen Kahn, economist at Make UK, the manufacturers’ organisation, explains:
“We are 21 days away from the UK leaving the EU and today’s data shows that manufacturing is right in the eye of continued economic uncertainty. There is now a potent cocktail facing the sector of trade wars, a synchronised global downturn in major markets and political chaos which shows no signs of ending.
“The majority of sectors declined with pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment being hit especially hard and vacancies in the sector are also falling rapidly. So long as the current uncertainty persists manufacturing looks as far away as ever from returning to pre-financial crisis levels.”
A new round of Brexit stockpiling by nervous businesses and consumers should keep the UK out of recession.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, says:
“Despite the contraction in GDP in August, the risk of the UK economy falling into a technical recession is still remote, due to strong growth in July. Also a potential new round of stockpiling will likely help boost GDP growth in September and October.
The latest figures are still a cause for concern however, especially as most of the fall comes from the manufacturing sector, which is particularly vulnerable to an adverse Brexit outcome.”
ING economist James Smith predicts that Britain will probably avoid recession in 2020 despite a gloomy August.
UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in August, suggesting there is very little to cheer about in the UK economy at the moment.
That said, the economy will most likely avoid a near-term technical recession. Consumer activity is continuing to grow, even if confidence remains fairly depressed. Shoppers appear to have been less fazed by the ups-and-downs of the Brexit process than businesses.
Still too early to be pencilling in a UK rate cut, we reckon, despite these latest gloomy GDP figureshttps://t.co/3rODqIm2xQ
Sky News’ economics editor, Ed Conway, agrees that Britain appears to be dodging a recession – but we’ll only know for sure in a month’s time.
UK economy contracts by 0.1% in Aug. Bit worse than expected. But July GDP growth revised up from 0.3% to 0.4%. At a glance it looks like the UK might have avoided recession. But much now depends on the final GDP figs for Q3, which we get in early Nov https://t.co/dwZCagVEep
UK GDP grew by 0.3%q/q in the 3 months to August. Main contributions came from the information & communications (0.1%) and professional services (0.11%) sectors. Manufacturing still the biggest drag (-0.1%). pic.twitter.com/RdVoaA5zcZ
Another better-than-expected U.K. GDP report. August’s 0.3% 3m/3m% growth rate bettered the 0.1% rate expected by the consensus. Momentum in the services sector still in tact, despite the Brexit fiasco. Still no “hard” data supporting the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate pic.twitter.com/rQ4LflScUq
Lights, camera, action: spike in tv/film production drives services growth & enables 0.3% GDP growth in 3 months to Aug – sparing uk from recession for now
I’ve dug through today’s growth report to find the main charts showing how the UK economy will probably avoid a Brexit recession, despite stumbling in August.
This shows how rolling three-month growth took a nasty tumble at the start of the summer, but has since recovered:
Britain’s film and TV production industry boosted growth in the last three months
The Office for National Statistics’ head of GDP, Rob Kent-Smith, explains:
“Growth increased in the latest three months, despite a weak performance across manufacturing, with TV and film production helping to boost the services sector.”
Britain’s services sector provided the bulk of the growth, as usual.
The ONS reports that services GDP grew by 0.4% over the last quarter, driven by the “professional, scientific and technical sector”.
Although August was weak, July and June were stronger than expected.
The ONS has revised July’s growth up, from 0.3% to 0.4%. June has also been nudged up to +0.1%, from zero.
NEWSFLASH: Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics’ latest growth report.
That’s a little weaker than expected, and the first monthly contraction since April.
Former UK chancellor Philip Hammond has warned Brexiteers that their dreams of striking new free trade deals once Britain has left the EU don’t add up.
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Hammond explains that such deals would have “very limited” economic value, and certainly wouldn’t compensate for the loss of tariff-free, frictionless trade with the EU.
EXC: So. @PhilipHammondUK has finally said it – the entire ‘bucaneering Britain’ #Brexit narrative is based on a fallacy.
The much anticipated free trade deals don’t outweigh costs of barriers to trade with EU from #Brexit 1/Thread
Think about that for a sec.
The whole row over the backstop and quitting the Customs Union is so we can win the right to make ourselves poorer.
So says the for Chancellor. They have “very limited” economic potential. /2 pic.twitter.com/VNwwhd3Na4
As you’d expect from ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ he’s not making it up – he’s run the numbers. (See research by LSE, HMT, @jdportes and others).
UPSIDE from FTAs all FTA is less than 0.5% additional GDP by 2030
DOWNSIDE of Canada minus deal? Negative 4-7% ‘lost’ GDP /3 pic.twitter.com/0so5wnAfez
European stock markets have just dropped smartly into the red, after China launched another broadside at America.
Beijing’s foreign ministry accused Washington of ‘smearing China’ over its crackdown in Xinjiang, by blacklisting companies and refusing to issue visas to officials.
Beijing said on Thursday that comments by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accusing China of human rights violations in its treatment of Muslims constituted a smear against China.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang made the comments at a daily briefing Thursday. He did not mention Pompeo in particular.
Slowing economic growth and weak trade haven’t stopped the rich spend-spend-spending, if the latest results from Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton are any guide.
LVMH, the world’s leading luxury products group, recorded a 16% increase in revenue, reaching € 38.4 billion in the first nine months of 2020. Organic revenue grew 11% compared to the same period of 2020.
Learn more➡️https://t.co/TMHcp0CXrF#LVMH pic.twitter.com/A8ffRC62Gv
Euro breakout above 1.10 – cleared the trend line resistance in green here and went for it – nice setup. Resistance now at 1.1020 pic.twitter.com/RWtz3OXnci
Sterling just slipped to a one-month low against the euro.
It touched €1.1105 for the first time since early September, meaning it has lost 2.3% against the euro in the last three weeks.
Germany’s economy is also struggling, compounding the risks to the UK economy.
New data show that German exports slumped by 3.9% year-on-year in August, the worst performance this year, with imports falling by 3.1%.
Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German #exports decreased by 3.9% and #imports by 3.1% in August 2020 year on year. https://t.co/WCyTEEbiGE pic.twitter.com/Cd8YXqszRa
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Two of the City’s big fears – a Brexit-induced recession and a full-blown trade war – are in the spotlight today.
Continue reading. Business Economic growth (GDP) Economics Stock markets International trade Global economy
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